In a recent interview at Gamescom 2026, Emmanuel “Manu” Rosier, Newzoo’s director of market intelligence, warned that the console market would essentially flat‑line in 2026 if not for the anticipated release of Grand Theft Auto VI. Rosier told GamesIndustry.biz that Rockstar’s flagship crime‑action series is the single most powerful catalyst for any growth in the console segment this year. He also highlighted the upcoming Nintendo Switch 2 as another positive influence, but made clear that without GTA VI the industry would likely see a year‑over‑year decline. "There are two drivers that are explaining the current and future performance of consoles: Switch 2 and, obviously, the release of Grand Theft Auto VI this year, which is going to drive the market up," Rosier explained.
"If in 2026, let’s say Grand Theft Auto VI wasn’t coming out, then you would have a platform going down year‑on‑year. GTA is really helping consoles achieve positive growth in 2026." Newzoo’s latest Global Games Market Report backs up Rosier’s statements with hard numbers. The firm projects that total console revenue will rise 5.1 percent in 2026, reaching roughly $46.9 billion. Within that figure, GTA VI is expected to boost full‑game spending on consoles by an impressive 17.5 percent, making it the strongest growth driver among all business models tracked by Newzoo.
The impact of GTA VI is not limited to raw sales figures. Rosier cautioned that the game’s release will likely be "cannibalistic" to other titles, meaning that many developers are deliberately shifting their launch windows to avoid direct competition with Rockstar’s blockbuster.
This strategic rescheduling underscores how dominant a single title can be in shaping the broader release calendar. When asked whether the 2026 surge driven by GTA VI would be a one‑off spike that would normalize in 2027, Rosier emphasized the enduring strength of the franchise. "The strength of Grand Theft Auto as a catalogue title is huge, meaning that the story doesn’t end at the end in 2026," he said. He noted that the future of GTA Online remains uncertain, with Take‑Two yet to provide clear communication about the transition from the current online ecosystem to the next iteration that will accompany the new release.
Rosier also touched on pricing dynamics. He observed that the price elasticity for GTA VI is extremely low because there is only one official version of the game, and fans have been waiting for years.
"When top‑tier pricing goes up, it tends to lift the whole market," he explained, adding that indie titles have already seen price increases from $20 to $30, a trend that could further elevate overall revenue across the console space. Beyond consoles, Newzoo’s report reaffirms that mobile remains the dominant platform worldwide, accounting for 57 percent of total gaming revenue in 2026—about $121.1 billion, a 6.8 percent year‑over‑year increase. This growth is driven by higher player spend and the continued expansion of direct‑to‑consumer storefronts on smartphones and tablets.
The report also highlighted the impressive pre‑order performance of GTA VI. In the first week after pre‑orders opened, the title generated roughly $260 million in revenue, signaling strong consumer enthusiasm and setting the stage for a robust launch quarter. In summary, Newzoo’s analysis paints a picture of a console market that would otherwise be stagnant, buoyed primarily by two forces: the arrival of Nintendo’s next‑generation Switch and the release of Rockstar’s Grand Theft Auto VI. While the Switch 2 contributes incremental growth, the sheer scale of GTA VI’s expected spend—projected at a 17.5 percent lift in full‑game purchases—makes it the linchpin for any positive trajectory in 2026.
The company’s forecasts also suggest that the ripple effects of this release will extend into 2027, particularly as the game makes its way to PC and as Take‑Two navigates the evolution of its online services. Meanwhile, mobile gaming continues its reign as the revenue powerhouse, underscoring the diversified nature of the global games market.