Shams Jorjani, the chief executive of Arrowhead Game Studios—the studio behind Helldivers 2—recently told GamesIndustry.biz at Gamescom that the video‑game sector is undergoing a profound transitional period. He argued that the playbooks and business models that guided developers and publishers throughout the 2010s have largely lost their relevance in today’s landscape. "There have been moments of doom‑and‑gloom, but overall the industry is healthy," Jorjani explained.
"What’s changed is that the foundations of our assumptions have shifted dramatically. The strategies that worked from 2010 to 2020 simply don’t apply any longer. The bottom line has vanished from every traditional business case.
In the past we might have assumed a game would sell a certain number of copies; now you have to subtract that figure to zero. That’s the new reality." He identified several key drivers behind this upheaval.
First, the continued rise of developers from the Asia‑Pacific region is reshaping the global market. The opening night of this year’s Gamescom highlighted the capabilities of studios from China and South Korea, underscoring that Asian games are no longer peripheral but central to the worldwide catalogue. "There’s been a steady increase in Asian companies entering Western markets over the last decade," Jorjani said, "and now it’s a steady stream of titles that are truly competitive." China, in particular, appears to be reaching a tipping point in terms of production quality. While the Chinese market remains heavily mobile‑centric—a factor that influences design sensibilities—the speed at which games are being created is accelerating, partly thanks to artificial intelligence.
"AI is speeding everything up," Jorjani noted, "so more games are released faster than ever before." The advent of AI, however, adds a layer of unpredictability that makes long‑term forecasting especially challenging. Jorjani contrasted the differing attitudes toward AI in the East and West.
In Western circles, developers grapple with ethical questions, data‑training permissions, and artistic integrity, often debating whether AI should be embraced or resisted. In contrast, many Eastern studios appear less concerned with such moral considerations, adopting AI tools swiftly to improve efficiency.
"In the West we’re experiencing an existential crisis," he said, "because we see game development as an artistic practice, whereas AI reduces it to functional code. The East is far more pragmatic and will adopt AI faster, though the West will eventually catch up." Beyond AI, the sheer length of development cycles for AAA titles compounds uncertainty. Large‑scale projects can span five to six years, involve multiple teams across different time zones, and require massive financial commitments. This reality has pushed many Western publishers to lean on established franchises rather than invest heavily in new intellectual property.
"When development is that long, you need a brand you can trust to mitigate risk," Jorjani explained. "Players know what they’re getting with a recognizable name, which cushions the gamble." He also highlighted a phenomenon known as "analysis paralysis," where the flood of new releases overwhelms consumers, making them gravitate toward familiar titles. Data from Steam Replay 2025 shows that roughly 44 % of playtime is spent on games that are between one and seven years old, indicating that players often stick with known quantities rather than exploring fresh IPs. "People shout for new games, but they end up buying remakes or sequels," Jorjani observed.
"Our success with Helldivers was partly luck, but also the unique blend of design that made it instantly recognizable." Jorjani pointed to companies like Riot Games and Supercell as examples of studios that juggle multiple projects simultaneously, allowing one breakout hit to dominate while the others remain in the shadows. This dynamic, he argued, creates a strategic opening for indie developers.
"The secret sauce for any successful game is early validation," he said. "The sooner you can show something to an audience and receive positive feedback, the better you can iterate.
Indie teams often share early builds, GIFs, or prototypes publicly, and if the community reacts positively, they know they’re on the right track." He cited the indie title Tiny Glade as a case study: early GIFs went viral week after week, providing instant market validation. By contrast, a four‑year AAA cycle that waits until the final product to launch a massive marketing push lacks that iterative feedback loop.
Arrowhead intends to adopt this early‑validation mindset for its next project, drawing inspiration from mobile developers who test concepts via ads and measure performance before committing to full production. "We’ll put the game in players’ hands as early as possible," Jorjani affirmed. "Our philosophy is to craft experiences for a specific type of connoisseur, not just any action‑game fan.
We’ll give a select group of 100 Helldivers veterans a prototype, ask them about their favorite IPs, and compare their reactions to a control group. If they love aliens and enjoy Helldivers, we know we’re hitting the right niche. This kind of targeted, early testing is far more valuable than waiting two years for broad user testing." In closing, Jorjani warned that clinging to outdated playbooks—keeping a project hidden for years before a big reveal—won’t work in the new environment. Instead, developers must embrace transparency, rapid iteration, and data‑driven decision‑making to stay competitive.
The industry’s fundamentals have shifted; those who adapt quickly, especially indie creators who can validate ideas early, are poised to thrive in the evolving landscape.