Shams Jorjani, the chief executive of Arrowhead Game Studios – the studio behind Helldivers 2 – told GamesIndustry.biz at Gamescom that the video‑game sector is currently undergoing a profound transition. He explained that the assumptions and playbooks that guided developers and publishers throughout the 2010s have lost their relevance in today’s rapidly evolving landscape. "There have been moments of pessimism, but overall the industry is healthy," Jorjani said. "What has changed is the foundation of our expectations.
The strategies that worked from 2010 to 2020 simply don’t apply any longer. The bottom line has been stripped from every business case we once relied on. In the past we could estimate a minimum sales figure for a title; now you have to subtract that number entirely. That’s the reality we face." **Why the market is shifting** Several forces are driving this upheaval.
One of the most visible is the continued ascent of developers from the Asia‑Pacific region. This year’s Gamescom Opening Night Live highlighted the capabilities of studios from China and South Korea, underscoring a trend that has been building for a decade.
"Asian games and companies have been making inroads into the West for ten years, but now it’s a steady stream of releases that are genuinely competitive," Jorjani observed. China, in particular, appears to have reached a tipping point in terms of quality. While the Chinese market remains heavily mobile‑centric – a factor that shapes design sensibilities – the overall polish and ambition of its titles are improving. Jorjani believes that artificial intelligence is accelerating this progress, enabling developers to produce and iterate on games at an unprecedented pace.
**AI as a game‑changing variable** Artificial intelligence has introduced a level of uncertainty that makes long‑term forecasting especially tricky. Unlike previous hype cycles such as virtual reality, which eventually settled into a niche, AI is reshaping core production pipelines.
Jorjani noted a stark cultural divide in how the technology is embraced: "In the West, we’re debating ethics, data‑training rights, and artistic integrity. In the East, there’s far less hesitation – they adopt AI wholesale because the primary goal is functional code, not necessarily a human‑centric artistic experience." He added that Western developers may experience an "existential crisis" as they grapple with the notion that a piece of software can now generate assets, narratives, or even entire levels. "When you turn art into code, the conversation shifts.
The West will likely be slower to adopt AI, but the momentum will inevitably catch up," he warned. **The burden of long development cycles** Another complicating factor is the length of time required to bring AAA titles to market.
Projects often span five to six years and involve multiple, geographically dispersed teams. This reality pushes publishers toward established franchises and away from risky new IP, especially in Western markets.
Jorjani explained that brand recognition is the most effective risk mitigator: "If players know what they’re getting, you can offset the uncertainty of a long development window." He cited the phenomenon of "analysis paralysis" – the overwhelming flood of new releases that makes it hard for consumers to choose. Recognizable names like Worms provide a safety net because players understand the core experience, even if the latest iteration isn’t groundbreaking.
Data from Steam Replay 2025 shows that roughly 44 % of playtime is spent on titles older than one year, indicating that gamers often gravitate toward familiar, proven experiences rather than untested concepts. **Indie developers hold a strategic edge** Despite the dominance of big studios, Jorjani believes indie creators possess a distinct advantage. He highlighted companies such as Riot and Supercell, which juggle multiple projects simultaneously; a single hit can eclipse the rest of the portfolio, allowing resources to be reallocated quickly. For smaller teams, the key is "early validation" – getting a prototype or even a short GIF in front of players to gauge reaction.
This rapid feedback loop enables swift iteration and reduces the risk of investing years into a product that may not resonate. He recalled the indie hit Tiny Glade, which exploded in popularity after a series of early‑stage GIFs went viral week after week.
In contrast, a four‑year AAA cycle forces studios to wait until the final product is polished before launching a massive marketing push, often missing the opportunity to course‑correct based on community input. **Arrowhead’s evolving approach** Arrowhead is already incorporating these lessons into its next project. Inspired by mobile‑gaming practices, the studio plans to expose concepts to consumers early, often through short ads, to see which ideas perform best. Jorjani described a concrete test: "We’ll give a hundred Helldivers veterans a prototype and ask them about their favorite IPs.
If they love aliens and enjoy Helldivers, we’ll prioritize that direction. If the control group likes Helldivers but not aliens, we’ll adjust accordingly. This early, targeted feedback lets us refine the game before committing to a full‑scale build." He concluded with a call to abandon outdated playbooks: "You can’t keep your cards close to the chest for years and then expect a fireworks display at launch. The industry demands transparency, rapid iteration, and a willingness to let the community shape the product from day one." In summary, Jorjani paints a picture of an industry where long‑standing assumptions have been upended by faster development cycles, the rise of Asian talent, and the disruptive potential of AI.
While these forces introduce volatility, they also create openings for agile indie studios that can validate ideas quickly and connect directly with niche audiences. Arrowhead’s own shift toward early player involvement exemplifies how even mid‑size developers can adapt and thrive amid this fundamental transformation.