If Rockstar Games does not release Grand Theft Auto VI in 2026, the worldwide console market would essentially break even with the figures recorded in 2025, according to the latest analysis from Newzoo. Emmanuel “Manu” Rosier, Newzoo’s director of market intelligence, explained this outlook during a conversation with GamesIndustry.biz at Gamescom 2026, emphasizing that the upcoming blockbuster is the sole catalyst that will generate any meaningful growth for consoles this year. Rosier highlighted two primary forces shaping the console landscape in the coming months. The first is the anticipated arrival of Nintendo’s next‑generation handheld, commonly referred to as the Switch 2, which is already creating a buzz among consumers and developers alike.
The second, and far more decisive, is the release of Grand Theft Auto VI, a title that historically has acted as a revenue engine for the entire industry. "There are two drivers that are explaining the current and future performance of consoles: Switch 2 and, obviously, the release of Grand Theft Auto VI this year, which is going to drive the market up," Rosier told the press. He went on to illustrate the magnitude of GTA VI’s impact by presenting a counterfactual scenario. "If in 2026, let’s say Grand Theft Auto VI wasn’t coming out, then you would have a platform going down year‑on‑year.
GTA is really helping consoles achieve positive growth in 2026," he said. This statement underscores the franchise’s ability to lift not only its own sales but also the broader ecosystem, from hardware demand to ancillary services such as online subscriptions and downloadable content. Newzoo’s freshly released Global Games Market Report quantifies the expectations.
Console revenue is projected to climb 5.1% in 2026, reaching $46.9 billion. Within that growth, Grand Theft Auto VI is forecast to boost full‑game spending on consoles by an impressive 17.5%, a figure Newzoo describes as the "strongest growth of any business model" in the sector. In practical terms, this means that the title alone could account for a sizable slice of the incremental revenue that consoles will generate next year.
Rosier also warned that the launch of GTA VI is likely to be "cannibalistic" to other releases. Many studios have already shifted their launch windows to avoid direct competition with the juggernaut, a tactic that reflects the game’s market‑dominant position. When asked whether the 2026 spike in sales would be a one‑off "GTA bump" that would normalize in 2027, Rosier emphasized the enduring strength of the franchise.
"The strength of Grand Theft Auto as a catalogue title is huge, meaning that the story doesn’t end at the end in 2026," he explained, pointing to the long‑term revenue stream generated by GTA Online and future content updates. He admitted that the specifics of GTA Online’s future remain uncertain. "We have no certainty about what GTA Online will become in the coming months and year," Rosier said.
"We know there will be a transition at some point, but Take‑Two has not been communicating about it, so we don’t know when it will be the fit between current GTA and new GTA. We know it’s also generating a lot of revenue." The analyst added that Newzoo’s 2027 forecast already assumes a PC launch of GTA VI, which will serve as another major revenue driver, even though the firm lacks concrete details about the timing or scope of that release.
Regarding pricing, Rosier noted that the market’s price elasticity for a title like GTA VI is remarkably low. "Sometimes one publisher leads the way and then others follow; the price elasticity is very low because there is only one GTA VI," he said. He observed that the heightened anticipation has allowed Rockstar to command a premium price, and that this trend often lifts the overall price floor for games across the board.
"Everyone’s been waiting so long. It doesn’t mean that everyone can do that, but usually when the top pricing increases, it lifts the market; the indie game became $30 rather than $20. The prices are being lifted a little bit," he added.
While consoles are set to benefit from GTA VI, Newzoo’s broader market outlook still places mobile gaming at the apex of revenue generation. The report projects that mobile will capture 57% of global game revenue in 2026, amounting to $121.1 billion—a 6.8% year‑on‑year increase driven by higher player spending and the continued expansion of direct‑to‑consumer storefronts.
In addition to the projected impact on console sales, Newzoo disclosed that pre‑orders for Grand Theft Auto VI generated $260 million in revenue during the first week they were available, underscoring the franchise’s massive pull power even before the game reaches retail shelves. In summary, the data suggests that without the blockbuster release of Grand Theft Auto VI, the console segment would likely see flat or declining revenue in 2026. The combination of the Switch 2 launch and the GTA VI release forms a dual‑engine that is expected to push console earnings up by just over five percent, while also delivering a 17.5% surge in full‑game spend.
The ripple effects—ranging from delayed releases by competing studios to a modest uplift in overall game pricing—highlight how a single, high‑profile title can shape the financial health of an entire platform ecosystem for an entire fiscal year.