If Grand Theft Auto 6 does not hit shelves in 2026, the console market would essentially break even with its 2025 performance, according to Newzoo’s market intelligence chief Emmanuel “Manu” Rosier. He explained his outlook during an interview with GamesIndustry.biz at Gamescom 2026, emphasizing that Rockstar’s flagship crime‑action series is the singular catalyst that could push console revenues upward this year. Rosier also highlighted the upcoming Nintendo Switch 2 as another positive influence, but he made clear that without GTA 6 the sector would likely see a year‑over‑year decline. "Two main forces are shaping the console landscape right now: the launch of the Switch 2 and, most importantly, Grand Theft Auto 6," Rosier told the press.
"If GTA 6 were not scheduled for 2026, we would be looking at a shrinking platform rather than growth. The title is a major driver of positive momentum for consoles this year." Newzoo’s latest Global Games Market Report supports this narrative, forecasting a 5.1% increase in console revenue for 2026, reaching an estimated $46.9 billion. Within that growth, GTA 6 is expected to lift full‑game spending by 17.5%, which the firm describes as the strongest expansion among all business models in the sector.
The report also notes that the title’s impact will be somewhat cannibalistic, pulling spending away from other releases—a factor that has prompted many developers to shift their launch windows to avoid direct competition with Rockstar’s juggernaut. When asked whether the surge driven by GTA 6 would be a one‑off spike that normalizes in 2027, Rosier cautioned that the franchise’s longevity makes it difficult to predict a sharp correction. "GTA’s catalogue strength is immense; the story doesn’t simply end in 2026," he said. "We don’t have concrete data on the future of GTA Online, but we know Take‑Two is planning a transition.
The exact timing is unclear because Take‑Two has been tight‑lipped, yet the revenue pipeline remains robust." Rosier also addressed pricing concerns surrounding GTA 6. He observed that the market’s price elasticity for the game is unusually low because there is essentially no direct competition—there is only one GTA 6.
"When a premium title like this raises its price, it tends to lift the overall market," he explained. "We’ve seen indie titles move from $20 to $30, and the general price floor is creeping upward as a result of flagship releases setting new benchmarks." Beyond consoles, Newzoo’s report reaffirms that mobile gaming continues to dominate global revenue, accounting for 57% of total industry earnings in 2026—approximately $121.1 billion, a 6.8% year‑over‑year increase.
This growth is driven by higher player spend and the expanding influence of direct‑to‑consumer storefronts on smartphones and tablets. The report also recalled that GTA 6 pre‑orders generated an impressive $260 million in their first week of availability, underscoring the title’s massive anticipatory demand. This early revenue stream further illustrates why the game is such a pivotal factor for console manufacturers and publishers alike. In summary, Newzoo’s analysis paints a picture of a console ecosystem that is heavily reliant on two major events in 2026: the rollout of Nintendo’s next‑generation Switch and the release of Rockstar’s Grand Theft Auto 6.
While the Switch 2 will contribute to a modest uplift, it is GTA 6 that is projected to deliver the bulk of the growth, pushing full‑game spend up by nearly a fifth and preventing an overall revenue decline. The firm’s outlook suggests that, barring unforeseen disruptions, consoles will see a modest but meaningful increase in earnings, largely thanks to the blockbuster appeal and pricing power of GTA 6.