Shams Jorjani, chief executive of Arrowhead Game Studios—the team behind Helldivers 2—recently told GamesIndustry.biz at Gamescom that the video‑game sector is undergoing a profound transition. He argues that the formulas that guided developers and publishers throughout the 2010s have lost their relevance in today’s market.
"There have been moments of pessimism, but overall the industry remains healthy," Jorjani explained. "What’s changed is that the foundations of our assumptions have been rewritten.
The playbooks that served us from 2010 to 2020 simply don’t apply any longer. The bottom line of every business case has been stripped away. No one could guarantee a title’s sales figure, and whatever target you set, you now have to subtract zero.
That’s the new reality." Several forces are driving this shift. One of the most visible is the continued rise of developers from the Asia‑Pacific region. This year’s Gamescom Opening Night Live highlighted the capabilities of studios from China and South Korea, underscoring how Asian games are increasingly competing on the global stage.
"For a decade there’s been a steady influx of Asian companies into Western markets," Jorjani noted. "Now we’re seeing a relentless stream of titles from that region that are genuinely breaking through." China, in particular, appears to have reached a tipping point in terms of production quality. While the Chinese market remains heavily mobile‑centric—a factor that shapes design sensibilities—the overall ambition and polish of its games are accelerating, a trend Jorjani attributes partly to artificial intelligence. "The quality is definitely climbing," he said.
"There’s still room to grow, but the mindset around what makes a game tick is evolving. AI is speeding that evolution, allowing more titles to be produced at a faster pace worldwide." Artificial intelligence, Jorjani argues, introduces a level of unpredictability that makes forecasting the next five or ten years especially challenging.
He points out that the adoption of AI varies dramatically between East and West. In the West, developers are wrestling with ethical questions—data usage, artistic integrity, and regulatory concerns—whereas many Eastern studios appear less constrained by such debates and are integrating AI tools more aggressively. "In the West we’re asking if AI is ethical, whether companies should be allowed to train on certain data, and if we should push back on ideological grounds," he said. "In the East, there’s almost no hesitation.
It’s akin to what we see in the broader IT sector—people have simply switched to AI without moral qualms because the goal is functional code, not a human‑centric artistic experience." He acknowledges that this cultural divide could lead to an "existential crisis" for Western game creators, who must reconcile their artistic identities with software‑driven efficiencies. Nonetheless, Jorjani predicts that the West will eventually catch up, albeit at a slower pace.
Beyond AI, another obstacle to long‑term planning is the sheer length of AAA development cycles. Large‑scale projects often span five to six years and involve multiple teams across different time zones. This reality has nudged many Western publishers toward leveraging existing franchises rather than investing heavily in new intellectual property. "Several forces converge at once," Jorjani said.
"Development timelines remain long, and when the market is shifting, you need a guarantee that your gamble will pay off. Brand recognition is the most reliable risk mitigator. Players know what they’re getting with a familiar name, which reduces uncertainty." He illustrated this point with the example of the classic series Worms.
Even if a new Worms title isn’t groundbreaking, its legacy provides a safety net because players recognize the brand and are willing to purchase it. Data from Steam Replay 2025 supports this trend: roughly 44 % of user playtime was spent on games aged between one and seven years, indicating that many gamers gravitate toward established titles rather than untested newcomers. Jorjani also highlighted how companies like Riot Games and Supercell often juggle multiple projects, yet only one becomes a breakout hit while the others fade into obscurity.
This dynamic, he believes, creates an opening for indie developers, who can move more nimbly and validate concepts early. "Early validation is the secret sauce," he asserted.
"If you can put something in front of players quickly and receive positive feedback, you know you’re on the right track and can iterate rapidly. Indie studios excel at this because their development cycles are shorter and they share progress openly—posting a GIF, for instance, and watching the community’s reaction." He cited Tiny Glade as a case study: early promotional GIFs generated a viral buzz that grew week after week, demonstrating the power of rapid, public feedback. By contrast, a four‑year development cycle that waits until the final product to launch a massive marketing push risks missing the momentum entirely. Arrowhead is applying this philosophy to its upcoming project.
Inspired by mobile‑game practices of testing concepts through ads, the studio plans to place early builds directly into the hands of a select group of players. Jorjani explained the approach: "We’ll give a prototype to about a hundred Helldivers fans, ask them about their favorite IPs, and see how they respond to specific themes like aliens.
If that cohort rates the experience highly, we know we’re hitting the right niche. This early data informs us long before a full‑scale launch." He concluded by urging the industry to abandon the old habit of keeping projects under wraps for years, then unveiling them with a grand spectacle.
Instead, he advocates a transparent, iterative process that leverages community feedback from the outset, allowing developers—big and small—to navigate the rapidly evolving landscape with greater confidence.