In a recent interview at Gamescom 2026, Emmanuel “Manu” Rosier, Newzoo’s director of market intelligence, warned that the console market would essentially break even in 2026 if Rockstar Games did not release Grand Theft Auto VI this year. Rosier told GamesIndustry.biz that the upcoming GTA VI title is the single most important catalyst keeping the console ecosystem on an upward trajectory, and that without it the sector would likely see a year‑on‑year decline.
Rosier also highlighted the role of Nintendo’s next‑generation handheld, the Switch 2, as a secondary engine of growth. “There are two drivers that are explaining the current and future performance of consoles: Switch 2 and, obviously, the release of Grand Theft Auto VI this year, which is going to drive the market up,” he said.
He added that the absence of GTA VI would cause the console market to contract, stating, “If in 2026, let’s say Grand Theft Auto VI wasn’t coming out, then you would have a platform going down year‑on‑year. GTA is really helping consoles achieve positive growth in 2026.” According to Newzoo’s freshly published Global Games Market Report, console revenue is slated to climb 5.1% in 2026, reaching $46.9 billion.
Within that growth, GTA VI is forecast to lift full‑game spending on consoles by a striking 17.5%, a figure Newzoo identified as the strongest expansion among all business models in the sector. Rosier acknowledged that the blockbuster’s release will inevitably cannibalise sales of some competing titles.
He suggested that many developers are deliberately shifting their launch windows to avoid direct competition with GTA VI, a strategy that underscores the game’s market‑shaping power. When asked whether the 2026 surge in sales would be a one‑off “GTA bump” that might normalize in 2027, Rosier emphasized the enduring strength of the franchise. “The strength of Grand Theft Auto as a catalogue title is huge, meaning that the story doesn’t end at the end in 2026,” he explained. The conversation then turned to GTA Online, the persistent multiplayer component that has generated substantial revenue for Take‑Two Interactive over the years.
Rosier admitted that Newzoo lacks concrete information about the future roadmap for GTA Online, noting, “We have no certainty about what GTA Online will become in the coming months and year. We know there will be a transition at some point, but Take‑Two has not been communicating about it, so we don’t know when it’s going to be the fit between current GTA and new GTA. We know it’s also generating a lot of revenue.” He added that the 2027 forecast already assumes a PC release of GTA VI, which will act as another major revenue driver, but reiterated that the firm’s projections are based on historical patterns rather than insider data.
Discussing pricing, Rosier observed that the GTA brand enjoys exceptionally low price elasticity because there is only one flagship title at a time. “Sometimes one publisher leads the way and then others follow; the price elasticity is very low because there is only one GTA VI,” he said. He noted that the long‑awaited release allows Rockstar to command a premium price, and that this premium can have a ripple effect across the industry. “When top‑tier pricing increases, it lifts the market; indie games moved from $20 to $30.
Prices are being lifted a little bit,” he remarked. While consoles are receiving a boost from GTA VI and the Switch 2, Newzoo’s report reaffirms that mobile gaming remains the dominant revenue generator worldwide. Mobile is projected to capture 57% of total global game revenue in 2026, equating to $121.1 billion—a 6.8% year‑on‑year increase driven by higher player spending and the continued expansion of direct‑to‑consumer storefronts. The report also referenced earlier data indicating that GTA VI pre‑orders generated $260 million in revenue during the first week after they opened, underscoring the franchise’s massive commercial pull even before the full game hits shelves.
In summary, Newzoo’s analysis paints a picture of a console market that is heavily dependent on two key forces in 2026: the anticipated launch of Grand Theft Auto VI and the rollout of Nintendo’s Switch 2. Without GTA VI, the sector would likely experience stagnant or declining revenues, while the Switch 2 offers an additional, albeit smaller, uplift. Meanwhile, mobile gaming continues to dominate the global revenue landscape, and the broader industry is watching closely to see how the GTA VI ecosystem evolves, particularly regarding the future of GTA Online and the impact of premium pricing on both AAA and indie titles.