In a recent interview at Gamescom 2026, Emmanuel “Manu” Rosier, Newzoo’s director of market intelligence, warned that the console sector would essentially flat‑line in 2026 if not for the much‑anticipated launch of Grand Theft Auto VI. Rosier told GamesIndustry.biz that Rockstar’s flagship crime‑action title is the single catalyst that will keep the console market from slipping into negative growth this year.
He also highlighted the upcoming Nintendo Switch 2 as another positive influence, but emphasized that GTA VI is the dominant driver. "There are two forces shaping the current and future health of console platforms: the new Switch 2 and, obviously, the release of Grand Theft Auto VI this year, which will lift the market," Rosier explained. "If Grand Theft Auto VI weren’t arriving in 2026, we would see the platform decline year‑over‑year.
GTA is truly the engine powering positive console growth in 2026." Newzoo’s latest Global Games Market Report backs up those statements, forecasting a 5.1% increase in console revenue for 2026, taking the total to roughly $46.9 billion. Within that growth, GTA VI is projected to boost full‑game spending on consoles by an impressive 17.5%, a figure Newzoo describes as the strongest growth among all business models in the sector.
Rosier also cautioned that the blockbuster’s release will be "cannibalistic" to other titles, a phenomenon that has already prompted several studios to shift their launch windows in order to avoid direct competition with the GTA debut. When asked whether the market would experience a massive "GTA bump" in 2026 followed by a correction in 2027, Rosier noted that the franchise’s longevity as a catalogue title means its impact will extend well beyond the initial release year. "The story doesn’t end in 2026," he said, pointing to the enduring revenue stream from GTA Online and the anticipated PC launch of GTA VI in 2027 as further growth levers. Regarding GTA Online’s future, Rosier admitted that Newzoo lacks concrete information about Take‑Two’s transition plans.
"We have no certainty about what GTA Online will become in the coming months and year," he said. "We know there will be a transition at some point, but Take‑Two has not communicated the timeline, so we can only infer from past patterns of how previous GTA titles evolved." The analyst also addressed the pricing strategy for GTA VI. He observed that when a marquee title sets a high price point, it can lift the overall market’s price elasticity.
"Price elasticity is very low because there is only one GTA VI," Rosier noted. "When top‑tier pricing rises, it tends to lift the market; indie games have moved from $20 to $30 as a result. Prices are creeping upward across the board." Beyond consoles, Newzoo’s report reaffirms that mobile remains the dominant revenue generator in the global games industry, accounting for 57% of total income in 2026 – roughly $121.1 billion, a 6.8% year‑over‑year increase. This growth is driven by higher player spending and the continued expansion of direct‑to‑consumer storefronts.
The report also highlighted the impressive pre‑order performance of GTA VI. In the first week after pre‑orders opened, the title generated about $260 million in revenue, underscoring the franchise’s massive market pull. In summary, Newzoo’s outlook paints a picture of a console market that would otherwise be stagnant without the dual boost from the new Nintendo Switch 2 and, more critically, Grand Theft Auto VI. The latter’s anticipated 17.5% uplift in full‑game spending, combined with its likely spill‑over effects on pricing and ancillary titles, positions it as the pivotal factor for console growth in 2026 and beyond.
While uncertainties remain around GTA Online’s evolution and the precise timing of the PC launch, the data suggests that the GTA brand will continue to be a major revenue engine for the industry well into the next fiscal cycle.