If Rockstar Games does not release Grand Theft Auto 6 in 2026, the console market would essentially break even with the previous year, according to Newzoo’s latest analysis. Emmanuel “Manu” Rosier, Newzoo’s director of market intelligence, explained to GamesIndustry.biz during Gamescom 2026 that the upcoming GTA 6 title is the single most significant catalyst for any growth in the console segment this year. He also highlighted the upcoming Nintendo Switch 2 as another positive influence, but emphasized that without the blockbuster release, overall console revenue would likely decline on a year‑over‑year basis.
Rosier summarized the situation succinctly: “Two main forces are shaping the console landscape right now – the next‑generation Switch and, of course, the launch of Grand Theft Auto 6. Those two drivers are what will push the market upward.” He added that in a hypothetical scenario where GTA 6 were delayed or cancelled, the console sector would experience a negative growth trajectory, underscoring the title’s outsized impact. Newzoo’s freshly published Global Games Market Report quantifies this effect.
The firm forecasts a 5.1% increase in console revenue for 2026, taking total earnings to roughly $46.9 billion. Within that growth, Grand Theft Auto 6 is projected to lift full‑game spending on consoles by 17.5%, making it the strongest growth driver across all business models tracked by Newzoo. The analyst also warned that GTA 6’s release will likely be "cannibalistic" to other upcoming games.
Many studios have already shifted their launch windows to avoid direct competition with Rockstar’s flagship title, a move that reflects the anticipated market‑share grab that GTA 6 will command. When asked whether the 2026 surge would be a one‑off spike that normalizes in 2027, Rosier noted the enduring power of the Grand Theft Auto franchise. "The strength of GTA as a catalogue brand is enormous; the story doesn’t end in 2026," he said.
He also admitted that the future of GTA Online remains uncertain. "Take‑Two has not disclosed its roadmap, so we can’t pinpoint when the transition from the current online ecosystem to the new version will occur," Rosier explained. Nevertheless, he expects the 2027 forecast to be buoyed by the PC launch of GTA 6, which should act as another major revenue driver.
Pricing dynamics also came under discussion. Rosier observed that when a premier title like GTA 6 commands a higher price point, it can lift overall market pricing. "Price elasticity is very low for a game that only comes out once a generation," he said. "When the top‑end price rises, it often pulls up the price floor for the entire industry, including indie titles that might move from $20 to $30." Beyond consoles, Newzoo’s report reaffirms mobile gaming’s dominance.
Mobile is still projected to capture 57% of global gaming revenue in 2026, amounting to $121.1 billion—a 6.8% year‑over‑year increase driven by higher player spend and the continued expansion of direct‑to‑consumer storefronts. The report also referenced early pre‑order performance for GTA 6. In the first week after pre‑orders opened, the game generated an estimated $260 million in revenue, signaling strong consumer appetite even before launch. In summary, Newzoo’s outlook paints a picture of a console market heavily dependent on two key releases: the next‑gen Nintendo Switch and Grand Theft Auto 6.
Without the latter, 2026 would likely see flat or declining console revenues, while the presence of GTA 6 is expected to generate a double‑digit uplift, both in overall console sales and in full‑game spend. The broader gaming ecosystem, however, continues to be led by mobile, which remains the largest revenue source worldwide.