In a recent interview at Gamescom 2026, Emmanuel “Manu” Rosier, Newzoo’s director of market intelligence, warned that the console ecosystem would essentially break even with the 2025 figures if Rockstar Games did not release Grand Theft Auto VI this year. Rosier told GamesIndustry.biz that the upcoming open‑world crime saga is the single most powerful catalyst for any growth in the console segment for 2026, and that the newly announced Nintendo Switch 2 also adds a modest boost to the overall picture. "Two main forces are shaping the console landscape right now: the launch of Switch 2 and, above all, Grand Theft Auto VI," Rosier explained.
"If GTA VI were delayed or cancelled, we would see a year‑over‑year decline across the board. The title is effectively pulling the whole market upward in 2026." Newzoo’s latest Global Games Market Report backs up those statements, projecting a 5.1% increase in console revenue for the year, taking the total to roughly $46.9 billion.
Within that growth, GTA VI is forecast to generate a 17.5% uplift in full‑game spending on consoles, a figure that Newzoo describes as the strongest expansion among all business models currently tracked. Rosier also noted that the release of GTA VI is likely to be somewhat cannibalistic, diverting consumer dollars away from other upcoming titles. This dynamic explains why several developers have strategically shifted their launch windows to avoid direct competition with Rockstar’s flagship.
"Studios are moving dates to stay clear of the GTA release window," he said, "because they anticipate a significant portion of discretionary spend will be captured by the new Grand Theft Auto." When asked whether the market would experience a sharp "GTA bump" in 2026 followed by a correction in 2027, Rosier emphasized the enduring strength of the franchise. "Grand Theft Auto is more than a one‑off event; it’s a catalogue title with a long tail," he said. "The impact doesn’t simply end when the launch window closes." He added that the future of GTA Online remains uncertain. "We don’t have concrete information about how Rockstar will transition GTA Online to align with the new title," Rosier admitted.
"Take‑Two has been tight‑lipped about the timeline, so we can only infer from past patterns. Our 2027 forecast already assumes a PC release of GTA VI, which will be another major revenue driver, but we lack specifics beyond that." Regarding pricing, Rosier observed that the price elasticity for GTA VI is extremely low. "There’s only one GTA VI, and demand is enormous. When a premium title like this commands a higher price, it tends to lift the overall market price level," he explained.
"We’ve already seen indie titles inching up from $20 to $30, and GTA’s pricing strategy reinforces that trend." Beyond consoles, Newzoo’s report reaffirms that mobile gaming continues to dominate global revenue, accounting for 57% of the total $121.1 billion market—a 6.8% year‑on‑year increase driven by higher player spend and the maturation of direct‑to‑consumer storefronts. The report also highlighted the impressive pre‑order performance of GTA VI, which generated roughly $260 million in its first week of availability. This early revenue surge underscores the title’s magnetic pull on consumers and further validates Rosier’s assertion that the game will be a pivotal growth engine for the console sector. In summary, Newzoo’s analysis paints a picture of a console market that would otherwise plateau without the catalytic effect of Grand Theft Auto VI.
The combination of a new Nintendo hardware iteration and Rockstar’s blockbuster release creates a rare alignment of factors that together push console revenues upward in 2026. While the long‑term sustainability of this boost remains to be seen—particularly as the industry watches how GTA Online evolves and how other publishers adapt their strategies—the immediate outlook is clear: GTA VI is the linchpin holding console growth together for the year ahead.