In a recent interview at Gamescom 2026, Emmanuel “Manu” Rosier, Newzoo’s director of market intelligence, explained that the upcoming launch of Grand Theft Auto VI is the single most important catalyst for growth in the console segment this year. Without the blockbuster title, Newzoo’s data suggests that console revenues would essentially break even with 2025, showing no meaningful increase.
Rosier emphasized that the only other significant factor currently supporting the console market is the anticipated arrival of Nintendo’s next‑generation handheld, the Switch 2, which is expected to add modest incremental sales. "There are two drivers that are explaining the current and future performance of consoles: Switch 2 and, obviously, the release of Grand Theft Auto VI this year, which is going to drive the market up," Rosier told GamesIndustry.biz. He went on to illustrate the magnitude of GTA VI’s impact: "If in 2026, let’s say Grand Theft Auto VI wasn’t coming out, then you would have a platform going down year‑on‑year. GTA is really helping consoles achieve positive growth in 2026." Newzoo’s freshly published Global Games Market Report quantifies that optimism.
The firm forecasts console revenue to climb 5.1% in 2026, reaching roughly $46.9 billion. Within that figure, Grand Theft Auto VI is projected to lift full‑game spending on consoles by an impressive 17.5%, a boost Newzoo labels as the strongest growth among all business models tracked. This surge is expected to ripple across the ecosystem, influencing everything from retail shelf space to digital storefront promotions. Rosier also warned that GTA VI’s launch will likely be "cannibalistic" to other titles.
Many developers have already shifted their release windows to avoid direct competition with Rockstar’s flagship, a strategy that underscores the game’s market‑shaping power. When asked whether the 2026 spike would normalize in 2027, Rosier highlighted the enduring strength of the Grand Theft Auto brand: "The strength of Grand Theft Auto as a catalogue title is huge, meaning that the story doesn’t end at the end in 2026." He admitted that the future of GTA Online remains uncertain. "We have no certainty about what GTA Online will become in the coming months and year," he said.
"We know there will be a transition at some point, but Take‑Two has not been communicating about it, so we don’t know when it will be the fit between current GTA and new GTA. We know it’s also generating a lot of revenue. Our forecast for 2027 includes the launch of Grand Theft Auto VI on PC, so that’s a big driver obviously.
But we have no information of any kind. We’re just looking at the past and how things unfolded for the previous Grand Theft Auto title." Pricing dynamics were another point of discussion.
Rosier noted that the price elasticity for GTA VI is extremely low because there is only one version of the game at launch. "Sometimes one publisher leads the way and then others follow; the price elasticity is very low because there is only one GTA VI," he explained. He added that the long‑awaited title allows publishers to raise price points across the board, which can lift the overall market. "Everyone’s been waiting so long.
It doesn’t mean that everyone can do that. But usually when the top pricing increases, it lifts the market; the indie game became $30 rather than $20. The prices are being lifted a little bit." While consoles are poised for modest growth, the report reaffirms that mobile gaming remains the dominant revenue generator worldwide.
Mobile is forecast to capture 57% of total global game revenue in 2026, translating to $121.1 billion—a 6.8% year‑on‑year increase driven by higher player spend and the expansion of direct‑to‑consumer storefronts. The hype surrounding GTA VI is also evident in its pre‑order performance. Newzoo previously estimated that pre‑orders for the title generated about $260 million in the first week after they opened, underscoring the strong consumer appetite even before the game’s official release. In summary, Newzoo’s analysis paints a picture of a console market that would otherwise be stagnant in 2026 without the catalytic effect of Grand Theft Auto VI.
The combination of Nintendo’s Switch 2 and Rockstar’s flagship title creates a rare growth window for console manufacturers and developers alike. However, the broader industry must also consider the ripple effects—such as potential cannibalisation of other releases and shifting pricing strategies—that a megahit like GTA VI inevitably brings.
The upcoming year will therefore serve as a critical barometer for how dependent the console ecosystem has become on marquee, franchise‑driven releases, and whether that reliance can be sustained once the initial excitement fades.