In a recent interview at Gamescom 2026, Emmanuel “Manu” Rosier, Newzoo’s director of market intelligence, warned that the console ecosystem would essentially see no growth in 2026 if Rockstar Games did not launch Grand Theft Auto VI this year. According to Rosier, the upcoming GTA 6 title is the primary catalyst that will prevent the console market from slipping into a year‑over‑year decline, with the Nintendo Switch 2 providing a secondary but still notable lift.
Rosier explained, "There are two main drivers shaping the current and future health of the console segment: the upcoming Switch 2 and, of course, the release of Grand Theft Auto VI. Together they are set to push the market upward." He added a hypothetical scenario, "If GTA VI were not arriving in 2026, we would likely see the platform’s revenues drop compared to 2025. The game is a critical growth engine for consoles this year." Newzoo’s latest Global Games Market Report backs up those statements, forecasting a 5.1% increase in console revenue for 2026, taking total earnings to roughly $46.9 billion.
Within that growth, GTA VI is expected to lift full‑game spending by an impressive 17.5%, which Newzoo has labeled the strongest expansion among all business models in the industry. The analyst also noted that GTA VI’s launch will inevitably cannibalise sales of other titles, a factor that has prompted many developers to shift their release windows to avoid direct competition with Rockstar’s blockbuster. "The magnitude of GTA VI means it will eat into the market share of other games," Rosier said, highlighting a strategic ripple effect across the publishing calendar. When asked whether the 2026 surge driven by GTA VI would be a one‑off spike that might normalize or even contract in 2027, Rosier emphasized the enduring power of the franchise.
"Grand Theft Auto is a catalogue title with a massive, loyal fanbase. The story doesn’t end in 2026; it continues through GTA Online, expansions, and future updates," he said. "We can’t predict exactly how GTA Online will evolve, as Take‑Two has been tight‑lipped about its roadmap.
However, we do know that a PC release of GTA VI in 2027 is already a major revenue driver in our forecasts." Regarding pricing, Rosier observed that the market’s price elasticity for GTA VI is unusually low. "There’s only one GTA VI, and demand is enormous. When a flagship title like this raises its price, it tends to lift the overall market, even nudging indie titles toward higher price points," he explained. He pointed out that while many gamers have waited years for the sequel, not everyone can afford a premium price, yet the overall trend shows a modest upward shift in average game prices.
The report also reaffirmed mobile gaming’s dominance across the global market. Mobile platforms are projected to capture 57% of total gaming revenue in 2026, amounting to $121.1 billion—a 6.8% year‑over‑year increase driven by higher player spending and the continued expansion of direct‑to‑consumer storefronts.
In addition to the macro‑level forecasts, Newzoo disclosed that GTA VI pre‑orders generated roughly $260 million in their first week of availability, underscoring the title’s immediate commercial impact. Overall, Newzoo’s analysis paints a picture of a console landscape that is heavily dependent on a single, high‑profile release to sustain growth. While the Switch 2 will contribute positively, it is the blockbuster power of Grand Theft Auto VI that appears to be the linchpin for a healthy console market in 2026, with spill‑over effects likely to be felt well into the following year as the game expands onto PC and continues to drive ancillary revenue streams such as online services and downloadable content.