According to Newzoo’s latest market intelligence, the console segment would essentially break even in 2026 if it were not for the anticipated launch of Grand Theft Auto 6. Emmanuel “Manu” Rosier, Newzoo’s director of market intelligence, explained to GamesIndustry.biz during Gamescom 2026 that Rockstar’s flagship title is the single most important catalyst for any growth in the console space this year. While the upcoming Nintendo Switch 2 also contributes positively, Rosier emphasized that GTA 6 is the dominant force keeping the console market from slipping into a year‑over‑year decline. "There are two drivers that are explaining the current and future performance of consoles: Switch 2 and, obviously, the release of Grand Theft Auto 6 this year, which is going to drive the market up," Rosier told the press.
He added a hypothetical scenario to underline the game's impact: "If in 2026, let's say Grand Theft Auto 6 wasn't coming out, then you would have a platform going down year‑on‑year. GTA is really helping consoles achieve positive growth in 2026." Newzoo’s Global Games Market Report, released alongside the interview, projects console revenue to climb 5.1% in 2026, reaching roughly $46.9 billion. Within that growth, GTA 6 is expected to lift full‑game spending by an impressive 17.5%, a figure Newzoo labels as the strongest expansion among all business models in the industry. The report also notes that the title’s release will likely cannibalise sales of some competing games, a factor that has prompted several developers to shift their launch windows to avoid direct competition with Rockstar’s blockbuster.
When asked whether the surge in 2026 would be a one‑off spike that might normalize in 2027, Rosier highlighted the enduring strength of the Grand Theft Auto franchise. "The strength of Grand Theft Auto as a catalogue title is huge, meaning that the story doesn't end at the end in 2026," he said. He cautioned, however, that the future of GTA Online remains uncertain.
"We have no certainty about what GTA Online will become in the coming months and year. We know there will be a transition at some point, but Take‑Two has not been communicating about it, so we don't know when it's going to be the fit between current GTA and new GTA. We know it's also generating a lot of revenue.
Our forecast for 2027 includes the launch of Grand Theft Auto 6 on PC, so that's a big driver obviously. But we have no information of any kind. We're just looking at the past and how things unfolded for the previous Grand Theft Auto title." Rosier also addressed pricing concerns surrounding GTA 6. He observed that when a marquee title commands a premium price, it can lift the overall market price floor.
"Sometimes one publisher leads the way and then others follow; the price elasticity is very low because there is only one GTA 6," he explained. "Everyone's been waiting so long. It doesn't mean that everyone can do that.
But usually when the top pricing increases, it lifts the market; the indie game became $30 rather than $20. The prices are being lifted a little bit." Beyond consoles, Newzoo’s report reaffirms mobile gaming’s dominance.
Mobile is projected to generate 57% of global game revenue in 2026—about $121.1 billion—a 6.8% increase from the previous year. This growth is driven by higher per‑player spending, the maturation of direct‑to‑consumer storefronts, and continued expansion into emerging markets. The report also revisits pre‑order data for GTA 6. In the first week after pre‑orders opened, the title reportedly amassed $260 million in revenue, underscoring the massive appetite for the game and the strong brand equity Rockstar has cultivated over two decades.
In summary, Newzoo’s analysis paints a picture of a console market that would otherwise be stagnant or even declining without the gravitational pull of Grand Theft Auto 6. The combination of a new Nintendo Switch iteration and the blockbuster release provides the only realistic path to modest growth for consoles in 2026. Meanwhile, mobile gaming continues to expand its lead, capturing more than half of worldwide gaming revenue.
The industry will be watching closely to see how the GTA 6 launch influences not just console sales, but also ancillary revenue streams such as online services, DLC, and the broader ecosystem of game pricing.