If Grand Theft Auto 6 had not been scheduled for release in 2026, the console market would have essentially broken even with its 2025 figures, according to Newzoo’s market‑intelligence chief Emmanuel “Manu” Rosier. Speaking to GamesIndustry.biz at Gamescom 2026, Rosier emphasized that Rockstar’s flagship crime‑action series is the sole catalyst capable of delivering any measurable growth for console platforms this year. He also highlighted the upcoming Nintendo Switch 2 as another positive influence, though its impact is secondary to the blockbuster title.
"There are two main engines driving the current and future health of the console segment: the Switch 2 and, of course, the release of Grand Theft Auto 6 this year, which will push the market upward," Rosier explained. "If GTA 6 were not arriving in 2026, we would be looking at a year‑on‑year decline for consoles.
The game is practically guaranteeing positive growth for the sector." Newzoo’s latest Global Games Market Report reinforces this outlook, forecasting a 5.1% increase in console revenue for 2026, taking the total to $46.9 billion. Within that figure, Grand Theft Auto 6 is expected to lift full‑game spending by 17.5%, a rate Newzoo describes as the strongest growth among all business models in the industry. Rosier warned that the GTA 6 launch will likely be "cannibalistic" to other titles, a dynamic that explains why many developers are shifting their release windows to avoid direct competition with Rockstar’s juggernaut.
When asked whether the 2026 surge would be a one‑off spike that might normalize in 2027, Rosier noted the enduring power of the Grand Theft Auto brand. "The strength of GTA as a catalogue title is immense, meaning the story doesn’t simply end in 2026," he said. He added that the future of GTA Online remains uncertain.
"We have no certainty about what GTA Online will become in the coming months and year," Rosier admitted. "We know a transition is coming, but Take‑Two has not communicated a timeline, so we can’t pinpoint when the current GTA ecosystem will give way to the new title.
What we do know is that it continues to generate substantial revenue. Our 2027 forecast already includes the PC launch of GTA 6, which will be another major driver, but we lack concrete details beyond historical patterns." Discussing the pricing of GTA 6, Rosier observed that when a leading publisher raises its flagship price, the entire market often follows suit. "Price elasticity is very low because there is only one GTA 6," he said.
"Everyone’s been waiting so long. It doesn’t mean every developer can match that price, but when top‑tier pricing climbs, it tends to lift the market overall. Indie titles that were $20 are now $30, reflecting a modest upward shift in pricing across the board." Beyond consoles, Newzoo’s report confirms that mobile remains the dominant revenue generator, accounting for 57% of global gaming income in 2026—approximately $121.1 billion, a 6.8% year‑on‑year increase. This growth is driven by higher player spending and the continued expansion of direct‑to‑consumer storefronts.
Earlier data from Newzoo indicated that GTA 6 pre‑orders alone generated $260 million in the first week after becoming available, underscoring the title’s massive market pull. The combination of a highly anticipated console release, the upcoming Switch 2, and the unparalleled draw of Grand Theft Auto 6 paints a picture of a console ecosystem that would otherwise be flatlining, but is instead poised for modest expansion thanks to these key catalysts. In summary, without the blockbuster launch of Grand Theft Auto 6, the console sector would likely have seen stagnant or even declining revenues in 2026.
The title’s ability to boost full‑game spending by nearly a fifth, coupled with the anticipated impact of the Nintendo Switch 2, is projected to lift overall console earnings by just over five percent, reaching $46.9 billion. While the long‑term effects of GTA 6’s pricing and its relationship with GTA Online remain uncertain, the immediate outlook is clear: Rockstar’s new release is the primary engine powering console growth in a year that would otherwise have been flat.