In a recent interview at Gamescom 2026, Emmanuel “Manu” Rosier, Newzoo’s director of market intelligence, explained that the upcoming release of Grand Theft Auto VI is the single most important factor preventing the console market from slipping into a year‑over‑year decline. Without the blockbuster title’s launch, Newzoo’s data suggests that console revenue would essentially break even with 2025, rather than posting the modest growth that analysts had anticipated. Rosier highlighted two primary engines driving the console sector’s outlook for the next twelve months: the anticipated arrival of Nintendo’s Switch 2 and, above all, the release of Rockstar Games’ Grand Theft Auto VI.
“If we imagined a 2026 where GTA VI never arrived, the console platform would actually contract,” he told GamesIndustry.biz. “The game is the catalyst that will push the market into positive territory.” According to Newzoo’s freshly published Global Games Market Report, total console earnings are projected to climb 5.1% in 2026, reaching roughly $46.9 billion. Within that figure, Grand Theft Auto VI alone is expected to lift full‑game spend on consoles by an impressive 17.5%, a growth rate Newzoo identified as the strongest among all business models in the industry. Rosier also warned that the massive pull of GTA VI will likely cannibalise sales of other titles released around the same window.
He noted that many developers have already shifted their launch dates to avoid direct competition with Rockstar’s flagship, a strategy that underscores the game’s market‑shaping power. When asked whether the surge in revenue tied to GTA VI would be a one‑off spike that might taper off in 2027, Rosier emphasized the enduring strength of the franchise. “Grand Theft Auto is a catalogue title with a long tail,” he said. “The story doesn’t end in 2026; the ecosystem around it—online modes, post‑launch content, and future platform releases—continues to generate income.” Regarding GTA Online, Rosier admitted that Newzoo lacks concrete information about Rockstar’s roadmap.
“We know there will be a transition at some point, but Take‑Two has been tight‑lipped about timing,” he explained. “Our 2027 forecast assumes the PC launch of GTA VI, which will be another significant driver, but beyond that we’re largely extrapolating from past patterns of previous GTA releases.” The discussion also touched on pricing dynamics. Rosier observed that the price elasticity for a title like GTA VI is exceptionally low because there is only one flagship release at a time. “When a premium‑priced blockbuster sets a new price ceiling, it can lift the overall market.
Indie titles, for example, have started seeing price points rise from $20 to $30 as the top end moves upward.” Beyond consoles, Newzoo’s report reaffirmed mobile gaming’s dominance. Mobile is projected to capture 57% of global game revenue in 2026—about $121.1 billion—representing a 6.8% year‑over‑year increase. This growth is driven by higher average spend per player and the continued expansion of direct‑to‑consumer storefronts.
The report also recalled that GTA VI pre‑orders generated roughly $260 million in their first week of availability, underscoring the title’s immediate commercial impact even before launch. In summary, Newzoo’s analysis paints a picture of a console market that would otherwise be flat or even shrinking without the catalytic effect of Grand Theft Auto VI. The combination of a new Nintendo hardware offering and Rockstar’s flagship release creates a rare alignment of factors that together push console revenue into modest growth territory for 2026, while the broader industry continues to be dominated by mobile platforms.