If Grand Theft Auto 6 had not been slated for release in 2026, the worldwide console market would have essentially broken even with the figures recorded for 2025, according to the latest commentary from Newzoo. Emmanuel “Manu” Rosier, Newzoo’s director of market intelligence, explained to GamesIndustry.biz during Gamescom 2026 that Rockstar’s flagship title is the single most important catalyst for any positive growth in the console segment this year. While the upcoming Nintendo Switch 2 also contributes to the modest uplift, Rosier stressed that without the GTA 6 launch the sector would likely have posted a year‑on‑year decline. "There are two drivers that are explaining the current and future performance of consoles: Switch 2 and, obviously, the release of Grand Theft Auto 6 this year, which is going to drive the market up," Rosier said.
"If in 2026, let's say Grand Theft Auto 6 wasn't coming out, then you would have a platform going down year‑on‑year. GTA is really helping consoles achieve positive growth in 2026." Newzoo’s freshly released Global Games Market Report backs up those remarks, forecasting a 5.1 % increase in console revenue for 2026, taking the total to $46.9 billion. The report also highlights that GTA 6 is projected to lift full‑game spending on consoles by 17.5 %, a figure Newzoo labels as the strongest growth rate among all business models in the industry. Rosier added that the launch of GTA 6 will inevitably be "cannibalistic" to other titles, a dynamic that has already prompted several developers to shift their release windows to avoid direct competition with Rockstar’s juggernaut.
When asked whether the market would experience a massive "GTA bump" in 2026 followed by a correction in 2027, Rosier replied that the enduring strength of the Grand Theft Auto brand means the impact will likely extend beyond a single fiscal year. "The story doesn't end at the end of 2026," he noted, referring to the continued revenue stream from GTA Online and future updates. Regarding the future of GTA Online, Rosier admitted that Newzoo lacks concrete information about Take‑Two’s roadmap. "We have no certainty about what GTA Online will become in the coming months and year," he said.
"We know there will be a transition at some point, but Take‑Two has not been communicating about it, so we don't know when it's going to be the fit between current GTA and new GTA. We know it's also generating a lot of revenue.
Our forecast for 2027 includes the launch of Grand Theft Auto 6 on PC, so that's a big driver obviously. But we have no information of any kind. We're just looking at the past and how things unfolded for the previous Grand Theft Auto title." Rosier also touched on pricing dynamics, observing that the price elasticity for a title like GTA 6 is extremely low because there is only one flagship version at launch. "Sometimes one publisher leads the way and then others follow; the price elasticity is very low because there is only one GTA 6," he explained.
"Everyone's been waiting so long. It doesn't mean that everyone can do that. But usually when the top pricing increases, it lifts the market; the indie game became $30 rather than $20.
The prices are being lifted a little bit." The report reiterates that mobile gaming remains the dominant revenue generator across the global games ecosystem, accounting for 57 % of total industry income in 2026—approximately $121.1 billion, up 6.8 % year‑on‑year. This growth is driven by higher average spend per player and the continued expansion of direct‑to‑consumer storefronts on smartphones and tablets. In a related data point, Newzoo previously disclosed that pre‑orders for GTA 6 generated roughly $260 million in the first week after they opened, underscoring the massive anticipation and willingness of consumers to spend on high‑profile releases. Overall, the consensus among analysts is that while the console market is not experiencing a breakout surge, the combination of a new hardware generation from Nintendo and the blockbuster launch of Grand Theft Auto 6 will keep the segment in modest, yet positive, territory for 2026.
The long‑term outlook will depend on how quickly the PC version of GTA 6 arrives, how Take‑Two manages the transition of GTA Online, and whether other major publishers can introduce competing flagship experiences that mitigate the "cannibalistic" effect of Rockstar's release.