If Rockstar Games does not release Grand Theft Auto 6 in 2026, the worldwide console market would essentially break even with the figures recorded in 2025, according to Newzoo’s latest analysis. Emmanuel “Manu” Rosier, Newzoo’s director of market intelligence, explained to GamesIndustry.biz during the Gamescom 2026 conference that the upcoming GTA 6 title is the single most significant catalyst that will keep the console segment in positive territory this year. He also highlighted the forthcoming Nintendo Switch 2 as an additional, albeit secondary, driver of console performance.
Rosier emphasized that two forces are shaping the current and near‑future health of the console ecosystem: the launch of the next‑generation Switch and, more importantly, the release of Grand Theft Auto 6. “If GTA 6 were not arriving in 2026, the console platform would actually contract year‑on‑year,” he said. “The game is the engine that will push the market upward.” Newzoo’s newly published Global Games Market Report forecasts a 5.1% increase in console revenue for 2026, bringing total earnings to roughly $46.9 billion.
Within that growth, GTA 6 is projected to boost full‑game spending on consoles by 17.5%, a rate that Newzoo identifies as the strongest expansion among all business models in the sector. This surge is expected to offset any potential decline that might otherwise have occurred without the title’s release. Rosier also warned that the massive pull of GTA 6 could be "cannibalistic" to other titles, a factor that has already prompted several developers to shift their launch windows in order to avoid direct competition with Rockstar’s blockbuster.
When asked whether the 2026 spike would be a one‑off bump that would normalize in 2027, Rosier argued that the longevity of the Grand Theft Auto franchise makes such a scenario unlikely. "The strength of GTA as a catalogue title means the impact doesn’t end with the initial launch," he noted. He added that the future of GTA Online remains uncertain. "We don’t have concrete information about how GTA Online will evolve over the next months or year," Rosier said.
"Take‑Two has been tight‑lipped about any transition plans, so we can only infer from past patterns. Our 2027 forecast does include the PC launch of GTA 6, which will be another major revenue driver, but we lack detailed data on the timing or nature of the handover between the existing online component and the new title." Regarding the pricing strategy for GTA 6, Rosier observed that the market’s price elasticity is relatively low because there is only one flagship GTA title to compete with. "When a premium‑priced game like GTA 6 hits the shelves, it tends to lift the overall price floor across the industry," he explained.
"We’ve already seen indie titles edging up from $20 to $30, and that trend is likely to continue as consumers accept higher price points for premium experiences." Beyond consoles, Newzoo’s report reaffirms that mobile gaming remains the dominant revenue generator worldwide, accounting for 57% of total global game sales in 2026—about $121.1 billion, up 6.8% year‑over‑year. This growth is driven by increased player spending and the expanding reach of direct‑to‑consumer storefronts on smartphones and tablets.
The report also recalled that GTA 6 pre‑orders generated an impressive $260 million in their first week of availability, underscoring the title’s massive demand and the willingness of consumers to spend on high‑profile releases. In summary, Newzoo’s outlook paints a picture of a console market that would otherwise be stagnant, but for the catalytic effect of Grand Theft Auto 6 and the anticipated arrival of the Nintendo Switch 2. The combination of a marquee franchise launch and a fresh hardware offering is expected to deliver modest yet meaningful growth, while the broader gaming landscape continues to be dominated by mobile platforms. The data suggests that while consoles may not experience explosive expansion, strategic releases like GTA 6 are essential to maintaining a positive trajectory in an increasingly competitive and diversified gaming ecosystem.