In a recent interview at Gamescom 2026, Emmanuel “Manu” Rosier, Newzoo’s director of market intelligence, warned that the console segment would essentially see no growth in 2026 if Rockstar Games did not release Grand Theft Auto VI this year. Rosier told GamesIndustry.biz that the upcoming GTA VI title is the single most significant catalyst keeping the console market from slipping into a year‑on‑year decline. He also highlighted Nintendo’s forthcoming Switch 2 as another important, though secondary, driver of console performance. "There are two main forces shaping the current and future health of the console ecosystem: the launch of Switch 2 and, of course, the arrival of Grand Theft Auto VI," Rosier explained.
"If GTA VI were not scheduled for 2026, the platform would likely contract rather than grow. The game is delivering the positive momentum that the console market desperately needs this year." Newzoo’s latest Global Games Market Report backs up Rosier’s comments, estimating that total console revenue will climb 5.1% in 2026 to reach $46.9 billion.
Within that growth, GTA VI is projected to lift full‑game spending on consoles by a striking 17.5%, a figure Newzoo identifies as the strongest expansion among all business models in the sector. The analyst also noted that GTA VI’s release will inevitably cannibalise sales of other titles, a dynamic that has already prompted several developers to shift their launch windows to avoid direct competition with Rockstar’s flagship.
"We’re seeing a clear pattern where studios are rescheduling to sidestep the GTA VI launch window," Rosier said. "The game’s sheer scale means it will dominate consumer attention and spending for a considerable period." When asked whether the market would experience a massive "GTA bump" in 2026 followed by a correction in 2027, Rosier emphasized the enduring strength of the Grand Theft Auto franchise. "The title isn’t just a one‑off event; it’s a catalogue staple that continues to generate revenue long after the initial launch," he said.
"We can’t predict exactly how GTA Online will evolve over the next months, but Take‑Two has been tight‑lipped about any transition plans, so we’re relying on historical patterns from previous GTA releases." Rosier also commented on the pricing strategy for GTA VI, noting that the game’s high price point is unlikely to deter buyers because of the franchise’s low price elasticity. "When a single, highly anticipated game like GTA VI hits the market, the demand curve is relatively inelastic. Consumers have been waiting for years, and they’re willing to pay a premium," he said. "That effect often ripples through the industry, nudging up average price points for other titles, including indie games that might move from $20 to $30." Beyond consoles, Newzoo’s report reaffirms mobile gaming’s dominance in the global market.
Mobile is expected to capture 57% of total game revenue in 2026, translating to $121.1 billion—a 6.8% year‑on‑year increase driven by higher player spend and the continued expansion of direct‑to‑consumer storefronts. The report also highlighted the impressive pre‑order performance of GTA VI. In the first week after pre‑orders opened, the title generated roughly $260 million in revenue, underscoring the massive appetite for the next installment in the series. Looking ahead to 2027, Newzoo’s forecasts incorporate the planned PC release of GTA VI as another major revenue driver, though Rosier admitted that concrete details about the PC launch timeline remain scarce.
"We’re watching the market closely, but without official communication from Take‑Two, we can only infer the likely impact based on past releases," he said. In summary, the consensus among analysts is clear: Grand Theft Auto VI is the linchpin of console growth in 2026. Its launch not only injects a substantial boost to full‑game spending but also shapes release strategies across the industry, influences pricing trends, and sustains the console ecosystem in a year that might otherwise have seen stagnation.
Meanwhile, the broader gaming landscape continues to be dominated by mobile, which remains the biggest revenue generator worldwide, while the upcoming Switch 2 promises to add another layer of competition and opportunity for console manufacturers.