In a recent interview at Gamescom 2026, Emmanuel “Manu” Rosier, Newzoo’s director of market intelligence, warned that the console ecosystem would essentially break even with the 2025 figures if Rockstar Games does not debut Grand Theft Auto VI this year. Rosier explained to GamesIndustry.biz that the upcoming blockbuster is the single most powerful catalyst keeping the console market on an upward trajectory for 2026. He also highlighted the anticipated launch of Nintendo’s next‑generation handheld, the Switch 2, as a secondary engine of growth, but made it clear that GTA VI is the dominant force.
"Two main drivers are shaping the console landscape right now: the arrival of Switch 2 and, of course, the release of Grand Theft Auto VI," Rosier said. "If GTA VI were delayed or cancelled, we would actually see a year‑over‑year decline in console revenue. The title is doing the heavy lifting for positive growth in 2026." Newzoo’s latest Global Games Market Report backs up those statements, forecasting a 5.1% increase in console revenue for 2026, bringing the total to $46.9 billion.
Within that figure, GTA VI is projected to boost full‑game spending on consoles by 17.5%, a growth rate that Newzoo describes as the strongest among all business models in the sector. Rosier also noted that the launch of GTA VI will inevitably be "cannibalistic" to other releases. Many developers have already shifted their launch windows to avoid direct competition with Rockstar’s flagship title, a move that underscores the game’s market‑shaping power.
When asked whether the 2026 surge caused by GTA VI would normalize in 2027, Rosier emphasized the enduring strength of the franchise. "Grand Theft Auto isn’t just a one‑off event; it’s a catalogue title with a long‑term pull," he explained.
"The story doesn’t end in 2026." Regarding the future of GTA Online, Rosian admitted that Newzoo lacks concrete information about Take‑Two’s roadmap. "We know a transition is coming, but Take‑Two has been tight‑lipped, so we can’t pinpoint when the current GTA Online ecosystem will hand over to the new iteration. However, we do anticipate that the PC launch of GTA VI in 2027 will be a major revenue driver," he said. "Our forecasts are built on historical patterns from previous GTA releases, not on insider data." When the conversation turned to pricing, Rosier observed that the premium price tag of GTA VI is unlikely to deter consumers because the franchise enjoys extremely low price elasticity.
"There’s only one GTA VI, and fans have been waiting for it for years," he said. "When a top‑tier title raises its price, it often lifts the entire market.
We’ve already seen indie games nudged up from $20 to $30, and overall price points are creeping higher across the board." Beyond consoles, Newzoo’s report reaffirmed that mobile gaming remains the dominant revenue generator worldwide, accounting for 57% of total game sales in 2026—about $121.1 billion, a 6.8% year‑on‑year increase. This growth is driven by higher player spending and the expanding reach of direct‑to‑consumer storefronts on smartphones and tablets.
The report also highlighted an impressive pre‑order performance for GTA VI, with the title racking up $260 million in its first week of availability. That early surge underscores the massive anticipation and purchasing power of the franchise’s fan base, further cementing its role as a linchpin for console economics.
In summary, Newzoo’s analysis paints a clear picture: without the blockbuster pull of Grand Theft Auto VI, the console market would likely see flat or declining revenues in 2026. The combination of the new Switch 2 hardware and the GTA VI launch creates a rare alignment of hardware and software momentum, delivering a modest but meaningful 5.1% growth to the console segment.
While mobile continues to dominate overall revenue, the console space relies heavily on marquee titles like GTA VI to sustain its relevance and profitability in an increasingly diversified gaming landscape.