If Grand Theft Auto VI does not launch this year, console earnings would essentially remain flat compared with 2025, according to Newzoo’s market‑intelligence lead Emmanuel “Manu” Rosier. Speaking to GamesIndustry.biz at Gamescom 2026, Rosier emphasized that Rockstar’s flagship crime‑action series is the sole catalyst that will prevent the console segment from slipping into a year‑over‑year decline. He also highlighted the upcoming Nintendo Switch 2 as another important contributor to the platform’s short‑term health. "There are two primary drivers shaping the current and future performance of consoles: the Switch 2 and, of course, the release of Grand Theft Auto VI this year, which will lift the market," Rosier explained.
"If GTA VI were not arriving in 2026, the console platform would actually contract year‑on‑year. The title is fundamentally responsible for the positive growth we anticipate for 2026." Newzoo’s latest Global Games Market Report forecasts a 5.1% increase in console revenue for 2026, taking the total to $46.9 billion. Within that growth, GTA VI is projected to boost full‑game spending on consoles by 17.5%, a figure Newzoo describes as the strongest expansion among all business models in the industry.
Rosier added that the arrival of GTA VI will likely be "cannibalistic" to other titles, explaining why many developers are shifting their release windows to avoid direct competition with Rockstar’s juggernaut. When asked whether the 2026 market would experience a massive "GTA bump" that might level off in 2027, Rosier noted that the franchise’s catalog strength ensures its impact extends beyond the initial launch year.
"The story doesn’t end in 2026," he said. He also addressed the uncertain future of GTA Online, stating, "We have no certainty about what GTA Online will become in the coming months and year. We know there will be a transition at some point, but Take‑Two has not communicated a timeline, so we can’t pinpoint when the shift between the current GTA ecosystem and the new title will occur.
Nonetheless, it continues to generate substantial revenue. Our 2027 forecast already includes the PC launch of GTA VI, which will be another major driver, but we lack concrete details beyond historical patterns observed with previous GTA releases." Regarding pricing, Rosier observed that the market’s price elasticity for a blockbuster like GTA VI is very low because there is essentially only one such title at a time. "When a leading publisher raises its price, it often lifts the entire market.
Indie games that were $20 are now $30, and overall price points are creeping upward," he said. "Everyone has been waiting for GTA VI for a long time, and while not everyone can afford a premium price, the willingness to pay tends to rise when the top‑tier product does." The report also reaffirmed mobile gaming’s dominance, projecting it to capture 57% of global game revenue in 2026—approximately $121.1 billion, a 6.8% year‑on‑year increase driven by higher player spend and the expansion of direct‑to‑consumer storefronts.
In a related data point, Newzoo previously estimated that GTA VI pre‑orders generated about $260 million in revenue during the first week they became available, underscoring the title’s immediate financial impact. Overall, the analysis paints a picture in which the console market’s modest growth hinges heavily on two pillars: the anticipated launch of Nintendo’s next‑gen Switch and the massive pull of Rockstar’s Grand Theft Auto VI. Without either, Newzoo predicts a stagnant or even declining console landscape in 2026, while mobile continues its steady march as the industry’s revenue engine. The interplay between blockbuster releases, platform upgrades, and pricing dynamics will therefore shape the competitive balance across all gaming segments for the foreseeable future.