If Rockstar Games does not release Grand Theft Auto VI in 2026, the console market would essentially break even with its 2025 performance, according to Newzoo’s latest outlook. Emmanuel “Manu” Rosier, Newzoo’s director of market intelligence, explained to GamesIndustry.biz during the Gamescom 2026 conference that the forthcoming GTA VI title is the singular catalyst capable of delivering any meaningful growth to the console segment this year. Rosier also highlighted the upcoming Nintendo Switch 2 as another positive influence, but he stressed that the impact of GTA VI dwarfs all other factors. "Two primary drivers are shaping the current and future health of consoles: the Switch 2 and, obviously, the release of Grand Theft Auto VI this year, which will lift the market," Rosier told the audience.
"If Grand Theft Auto VI were not arriving in 2026, the platform would actually contract year‑over‑year. The game is fundamentally responsible for the modest positive growth we anticipate for consoles in 2026." Newzoo’s most recent Global Games Market Report projects console revenue to climb 5.1% in 2026, reaching $46.9 billion. Within that figure, GTA VI is forecast to generate a 17.5% uplift in full‑game spending on consoles – the strongest growth rate Newzoo has recorded for any single business model. This surge is expected to ripple through the ecosystem, influencing everything from hardware sales to ancillary services such as online subscriptions and downloadable content.
Rosier warned that the launch of GTA VI will likely be "cannibalistic" to other titles, a phenomenon that explains why many developers are shifting their release windows to avoid direct competition with Rockstar’s blockbuster. By moving launch dates, studios hope to preserve their own sales momentum rather than be eclipsed by the massive marketing push and consumer attention surrounding GTA VI. When asked whether the 2026 market would experience a pronounced "GTA bump" that might normalize or even dip in 2027, Rosier emphasized the enduring strength of the Grand Theft Auto franchise. "The catalogue value of Grand Theft Auto is huge," he said.
"The story doesn’t end in 2026; the title continues to generate revenue long after the initial launch." He added that the future of GTA Online remains uncertain. "We have no certainty about what GTA Online will become in the coming months and year," Rosier admitted.
"We know there will be a transition at some point, but Take‑Two has not communicated any specifics, so we don’t know when the shift between the current GTA ecosystem and the new GTA will occur. Nonetheless, it is a significant revenue stream. Our 2027 forecast already assumes the PC release of GTA VI, which will be another major driver, but we lack concrete details beyond historical patterns." Regarding pricing, Rosier noted that the market’s price elasticity for a flagship title like GTA VI is extremely low.
"When a single, highly anticipated game commands a premium price, it tends to lift the overall price floor across the industry," he explained. "We’ve seen indie titles move from $20 to $30 as top‑tier pricing rises. The willingness of consumers to pay more for GTA VI sets a precedent that other publishers often follow." The report also reaffirmed mobile gaming’s dominance. Mobile platforms are expected to capture 57% of global gaming revenue in 2026, amounting to $121.1 billion—a 6.8% year‑over‑year increase driven by higher player spend and the expansion of direct‑to‑consumer storefronts.
This continued growth underscores the importance of cross‑platform strategies for publishers seeking to maximise reach and profitability. In a related data point, Newzoo disclosed that GTA VI pre‑orders generated roughly $260 million in their first week of availability, illustrating the massive upfront demand for the title.
This early revenue burst not only boosts the console segment’s short‑term figures but also signals a strong pipeline of post‑launch sales, including downloadable content, microtransactions, and online services. Overall, Newzoo’s analysis paints a picture of a console market that is heavily reliant on a single, high‑profile release to achieve modest growth in 2026. While the Nintendo Switch 2 will contribute positively, the bulk of the uplift is tied to Rockstar’s Grand Theft Auto VI. Should the game underperform or face delays, the console sector could see flat or even declining revenues, contrasting sharply with the robust expansion seen in mobile gaming.
Publishers, hardware manufacturers, and investors will therefore be watching the GTA VI launch closely, as its performance will likely set the tone for the console ecosystem’s health throughout the year and potentially influence strategic decisions well into 2027 and beyond.