In a recent interview at Gamescom 2026, Emmanuel “Manu” Rosier, Newzoo’s director of market intelligence, warned that the console market would essentially flat‑line in 2026 if not for the release of Grand Theft Auto VI. Rosier told GamesIndustry.biz that Rockstar’s highly anticipated crime‑action saga is the single most important catalyst for any growth in the console segment this year. He also highlighted Nintendo’s upcoming Switch 2 as a secondary, but still significant, driver of the sector’s performance. "Two forces are shaping the current and future health of console sales: the launch of Switch 2 and, of course, Grand Theft Auto VI," Rosier explained.
"If GTA VI weren’t arriving in 2026, we would actually see a year‑over‑year decline across the board. The title is practically guaranteeing positive momentum for consoles this year." Newzoo’s latest Global Games Market Report backs up Rosier’s statements, forecasting a 5.1% increase in total console revenue for 2026, lifting the figure to $46.9 billion. Within that growth, GTA VI is projected to lift full‑game spending on consoles by a striking 17.5%, which Newzoo identifies as the strongest expansion among all business models in the industry.
The impact of GTA VI goes beyond pure sales numbers. Rosier noted that the game’s release is likely to be "cannibalistic" to other titles, meaning that many developers are strategically shifting their launch windows to avoid direct competition with Rockstar’s blockbuster. This phenomenon has already prompted several studios to delay or advance their releases, hoping to capture consumer attention once the initial hype around GTA VI subsides. When asked whether the market would experience a massive "GTA bump" in 2026 followed by a correction in 2027, Rosier was quick to point out the enduring strength of the Grand Theft Auto franchise.
"The catalogue value of GTA is huge," he said. "The story doesn’t end in 2026; the title continues to generate revenue long after launch, especially through its online component." Rosier admitted that Newzoo has limited visibility into the future of GTA Online, noting that Take‑Two Interactive has been tight‑lipped about its roadmap. "We anticipate a transition at some point, but the company hasn’t disclosed when the hand‑off between the current online ecosystem and the new GTA VI online experience will happen," he said. "Nevertheless, we know the online component is a major revenue generator.
Our 2027 outlook already assumes a PC launch of GTA VI, which will be another significant boost, but we lack concrete details beyond what we can infer from past releases." On pricing, Rosier observed that the market’s price elasticity for GTA VI is extremely low. "There’s only one GTA VI, and the demand is enormous," he explained. "When a flagship title commands a premium price, it often lifts the overall price floor for the industry.
Indie developers have already started pricing their games at $30 instead of $20, reflecting a broader upward shift." While consoles are set to enjoy modest growth thanks to GTA VI and the Switch 2, Newzoo’s broader market analysis shows that mobile gaming remains the dominant revenue generator. Mobile is projected to account for 57% of global game revenue in 2026, amounting to $121.1 billion—a 6.8% year‑over‑year increase driven by higher player spending and the continued expansion of direct‑to‑consumer storefronts. The report also highlighted the impressive pre‑order performance of GTA VI. In the first week after pre‑orders opened, the title generated roughly $260 million in revenue, underscoring the massive appetite for the game even before its official release.
In summary, Newzoo’s data paints a clear picture: without the launch of Grand Theft Auto VI, the console market would likely see flat or declining revenues in 2026. The combination of GTA VI’s anticipated 17.5% boost to full‑game spending and the introduction of Nintendo’s Switch 2 provides the only meaningful growth engine for consoles this year.
Meanwhile, mobile continues to dominate the overall gaming landscape, delivering the bulk of global revenue and setting the pace for industry‑wide financial trends.