In a recent interview at Gamescom 2026, Emmanuel “Manu” Rosier, Newzoo’s director of market intelligence, warned that the console segment would essentially break even with 2025 if not for the anticipated launch of Grand Theft Auto VI. Rosier told GamesIndustry.biz that Rockstar’s flagship crime‑action series is the sole catalyst capable of delivering any meaningful growth for console hardware and software sales in the upcoming year. He also highlighted the upcoming Nintendo Switch 2 as an additional, though secondary, engine of momentum for the platform. "Two forces are shaping the console landscape right now," Rosier explained.
"First, the highly anticipated Switch 2, which is generating a fresh wave of consumer interest. Second, the release of Grand Theft Auto VI, which will act as a powerful market accelerator." He added that without the GTA VI release, the console market would likely experience a year‑over‑year decline, underscoring how pivotal the title has become for the health of the ecosystem.
Newzoo’s latest Global Games Market Report backs up these statements, forecasting a 5.1% increase in total console revenue for 2026, lifting the figure to roughly $46.9 billion. Within that growth, Grand Theft Auto VI is expected to lift full‑game spending by an impressive 17.5%, a rate that Newzoo identifies as the strongest expansion among all business models in the industry. Rosier also noted that the GTA VI launch will likely be "cannibalistic" to other upcoming releases. Many developers are already shifting their launch windows to avoid direct competition with Rockstar’s blockbuster, a strategy that illustrates the game’s market‑shaping power.
When asked whether the 2026 surge would be a one‑off spike that would normalize in 2027, Rosier emphasized the enduring strength of the Grand Theft Auto franchise. "The catalogue value of GTA is massive," he said. "The impact doesn’t end with the initial release; the title continues to generate revenue through updates, expansions, and its online component." Speaking about GTA Online, Rosier admitted that Newzoo lacks concrete information about the future roadmap. "We know a transition is coming, but Take‑Two has been tight‑lipped about the timing and the exact nature of the hand‑off between the current online ecosystem and the new version tied to GTA VI," he said.
"Our 2027 forecast does include the PC launch of GTA VI, which will be another major driver, but we’re essentially extrapolating from past patterns rather than having insider data." The conversation then turned to pricing. Rosier observed that the price elasticity for a title like GTA VI is unusually low because there is essentially only one version of the game on the market. "When a premium title commands a higher price point, it tends to lift the overall market floor," he explained.
"We’ve seen indie titles inch up from $20 to $30, and that ripple effect helps raise average spend across the board." Beyond consoles, Newzoo’s report reaffirms mobile gaming’s dominance. Mobile is projected to capture 57% of global gaming revenue in 2026, amounting to $121.1 billion—a 6.8% year‑on‑year increase driven by higher player spend and the continued expansion of direct‑to‑consumer storefronts.
The report also highlighted the early commercial success of GTA VI pre‑orders, which generated approximately $260 million in the first week after they opened. This early revenue stream illustrates the strong demand and the willingness of consumers to invest heavily in flagship titles even before they hit shelves.
In summary, Newzoo’s analysis paints a picture of a console market that is heavily reliant on a few marquee events to sustain growth. The Nintendo Switch 2 will add fresh hardware demand, but the lion’s share of the anticipated uplift comes from Grand Theft Auto VI, which is expected to boost full‑game spend by 17.5% and help the console sector achieve a modest 5.1% revenue increase, reaching $46.9 billion in 2026. Without this flagship release, the sector would likely have seen flat or declining figures, underscoring the outsized influence that a single high‑profile title can exert on the broader gaming economy.