Shams Jorjani, the chief executive of Arrowhead Game Studios—the studio behind Helldivers 2—recently told GamesIndustry.biz at Gamescom that the video‑game sector is undergoing a profound transitional period. He argued that the formulas and expectations that guided developers and publishers throughout the 2010s have essentially lost their relevance in today’s market.
"There have been moments of pessimism, but overall the industry remains healthy," Jorjani remarked. "What’s changed is that the foundations of our assumptions have been upended. The playbooks that served us from 2010 to 2020 simply don’t work anymore.
The bottom line has been stripped from every business case we used to rely on. No one could predict a title’s sales with certainty, but they at least assumed a baseline figure. Take that number and subtract everything—now you’re left with zero. That’s the reality we face." He identified several key drivers behind this shift.
First, the continued rise of development studios across the Asia‑Pacific region is reshaping the competitive landscape. The opening night of this year’s Gamescom highlighted a parade of titles from China and South Korea, underscoring how capable these developers have become. "Asian studios have been gaining ground in the West for a decade, but now we’re seeing a steady stream of high‑quality releases, game after game," Jorjani said. He noted that Chinese developers, in particular, appear to have reached a tipping point in terms of production value and design sophistication.
While the Chinese market remains heavily mobile‑centric—a factor that influences design sensibilities—the overall speed and ambition of development are accelerating, a trend he attributes in part to artificial intelligence. AI, according to Jorjani, is perhaps the most disruptive force currently reshaping the industry. Unlike previous hype cycles—such as virtual reality—that often fizzled out, AI is delivering tangible changes to how games are created, tested, and marketed.
However, its adoption varies dramatically between regions. "In the West we’re wrestling with ethical questions: should we allow AI to train on existing data?
Are there artistic or ideological concerns? In the East, those debates are virtually nonexistent.
Developers there have embraced AI wholesale, treating it as a straightforward productivity tool," he explained. Jorjani likened the situation to his friends in the broader IT sector, many of whom have migrated to AI‑driven workflows without moral hesitation because the output is functional code rather than expressive art. He acknowledged that Western creators may experience an "existential crisis" as AI blurs the line between artistic intent and algorithmic generation.
"I’m an artist and I care about connecting with players on an emotional level, but when you reduce a game to software, the conversation changes. The West will likely adopt AI more slowly, but the shift is inevitable." Beyond technology, Jorjani highlighted the structural challenge posed by the lengthy development cycles of AAA titles. Large‑scale projects often span five to six years and involve multiple studios operating across different time zones.
This reality has nudged many Western publishers toward leveraging established franchises rather than taking risks on new intellectual property (IP). "When development timelines are long and the market is volatile, you need a safety net. Brand recognition is that safety net," he said.
"If you launch a game under a well‑known name, players know what to expect, which mitigates risk. The opposite is true for fresh IPs—players may be intrigued but they’re less likely to spend money without a proven track record." Jorjani pointed to data from Steam that shows a large portion of playtime is devoted to titles that are more than 18 months old, indicating that gamers often gravitate toward familiar experiences. He argued that while there is vocal demand for novel games, purchasing behavior tends to favor remakes, sequels, and established series.
He cited Riot Games and Supercell as examples of companies that maintain a portfolio of multiple projects, where a single breakout hit can eclipse the rest. This dynamic, he believes, creates an opening for indie developers who can move faster and validate concepts early. "Early validation is the secret sauce for any successful game," Jorjani asserted. "If you can put something in front of players quickly and receive positive feedback, you know you’re on the right track and can iterate rapidly.
Indie studios excel at this because their cycles are short and they share progress openly—sometimes just a GIF or a short demo. When the community reacts positively, the developers can double down." He referenced the indie title Tiny Glade, which gained momentum after early GIFs went viral week after week.
By contrast, a four‑year AAA cycle forces studios to wait until the product is finished before launching a massive marketing push, which is riskier in an unpredictable market. Arrowhead itself is adopting this lean, feedback‑driven approach for its next project.
Jorjani explained that the studio is borrowing tactics from mobile game publishers, who often test concepts through ad campaigns to gauge consumer interest before committing to full development. "We’ll put the game in players’ hands as soon as possible," he said.
"Our philosophy has always been to target a specific type of connoisseur rather than the broad action‑player audience. We’ll give a curated group of about a hundred Helldivers fans early access, ask them about their favorite IPs and genres, and see how they respond to alien‑themed content versus other themes. This early data will tell us whether we’re hitting the right niche, allowing us to iterate before we invest years of resources." Jorjani concluded by emphasizing that the industry must abandon the old playbook of keeping development secrets for years and then unveiling a polished product in a grand spectacle. Instead, continuous engagement, rapid prototyping, and early community validation should become the norm.
In summary, the gaming landscape is being reshaped by three intertwined forces: the ascent of Asian developers, the disruptive potential of AI, and the inherent risk of long development timelines. While these changes introduce uncertainty, they also empower smaller, agile studios to compete by embracing early feedback loops and focusing on niche audiences.
Arrowhead’s strategy exemplifies this new paradigm, aiming to blend its creative vision with data‑driven insights to navigate an industry that no longer adheres to the assumptions of the past.