Shams Jorjani, the chief executive of Arrowhead Game Studios – the team behind Helldivers 2 – recently told GamesIndustry.biz at Gamescom that the entire video‑game ecosystem is undergoing a profound transition. He argued that the formulas that guided developers and publishers throughout the 2010s have largely lost their relevance, and that anyone still relying on those old playbooks is likely to be surprised by the market’s new dynamics. "Sometimes there’s been doom and gloom, but overall the games industry is doing well," Jorjani said. "It’s just that the things that we based our assumptions on have changed fundamentally.
The playbooks used from 2010 to 2020 no longer work. The bottom has fallen out of every business case that you had. No one knew how well a game would sell, but they assumed it would sell at least this much.
Whatever that number was, take a zero away. And that’s the reality." He identified three major forces reshaping the landscape: the continued rise of developers in the Asia‑Pacific region, the accelerating impact of artificial intelligence, and the ever‑lengthening development timelines for AAA titles. **The Asian surge** The opening night of this year’s Gamescom highlighted the growing clout of Chinese and South Korean studios, and Jorjani noted that this isn’t a flash‑in‑the‑pan phenomenon.
"There’s always been a general rise of Asian games and companies into the West," he explained. "That’s been ongoing for the last ten years, but now it’s reached a point where it’s game after game after game that’s really making it." China, in particular, appears to have hit a tipping point in terms of quality. While the domestic market remains heavily mobile‑centric, that focus has pushed Chinese developers to iterate quickly and adopt new tools at a breakneck pace.
Jorjani observed, "It is definitely picking up for sure. I think there’s still a way to go, but there are very different sensibilities to what makes the games tick as well. The Chinese audience is still primarily mobile‑driven. That flavours the sensibilities, but it’s going faster.
I think AI is accelerating this because more and more games are coming out faster and faster everywhere." **Artificial intelligence as a game‑changer** AI, according to Jorjani, is unlike previous hype‑driven technologies such as virtual reality. It is already reshaping production pipelines, asset creation, and even design iteration. Yet its adoption varies dramatically between East and West. In the West, developers wrestle with ethical questions, data‑ownership concerns, and artistic integrity.
In contrast, many Eastern studios appear less hesitant, treating AI as a straightforward productivity tool. "In the West, we’re asking if it is ethical and whether these companies are allowed to train on this data, and whether we should oppose it on ideological or artistic grounds.
Whereas in the East, they absolutely do not care whatsoever," Jorjani said. He likened the situation to his friends in the broader IT sector, many of whom have already migrated to AI‑driven workflows without moral qualms because the output is functional code rather than expressive art. He warned that this cultural divide could lead to an "existential crisis" for Western game creators, who must reconcile their artistic ambitions with the efficiency of algorithmic tools. "When you introduce AI to it, I understand that Western game developers have an existential crisis.
I am an artist, and I’m also connecting with people on an artistic level, but when you make it into software, it’s just functional. There’s a different attitude there. The West will be slower on the uptake, but the uptake will still happen," he added. **Lengthy development cycles and risk aversion** Another obstacle to forecasting the industry’s future is the sheer time required to build AAA experiences.
Projects often span five to six years, involve multiple studios across time zones, and demand massive budgets. This reality pushes publishers toward recognizable brands and established IPs, which act as risk buffers.
"Development cycles are still long. If you know that and the market is changing, you need to be very certain that the bet you’re taking works.
The only thing that really, really mitigates risk on that level is brand and recognisability," Jorjani explained. He cited the phenomenon of “analysis paralysis” that hits consumers when faced with an ever‑growing flood of new releases.
Familiar franchises like Worms or Helldivers provide a shortcut: players already know the core loop and can decide quickly whether to purchase. He referenced Steam data showing that roughly half of all playtime in 2025 was spent on titles older than 18 months, underscoring that gamers often gravitate toward proven experiences rather than untested newcomers. "People scream for new games and IPs, but they don’t actually buy them. We tend to buy remakes," he observed.
**Indie agility as a strategic advantage** Despite the dominance of big studios, Jorjani believes indie developers hold a unique strategic edge. Their shorter cycles allow for rapid feedback loops, early validation, and the ability to pivot based on community reaction.
He highlighted how a simple GIF or short video can generate viral buzz, providing immediate market signals that would take years for a AAA title to gather. "The secret sauce to any successful game is early validation," he said. "The sooner you can get something in front of a person and get positive feedback, you know you’re on track, onto something, and you can iterate. That’s the strength of software development." He pointed to successful indie launches such as Tiny Glade, which leveraged early visual teasers to build momentum week after week.
By contrast, a four‑year AAA cycle that waits until the final product to launch a massive marketing push risks missing the optimal window for audience engagement. **Arrowhead’s new approach** Arrowhead is planning to embed this early‑validation mindset into its next project.
Inspired by mobile‑gaming practices, the studio intends to expose concepts to a select group of players almost immediately. Jorjani described a test in which 100 Helldivers veterans would be asked about their favorite IPs and game preferences. By cross‑referencing their love for aliens, Helldivers, and other titles, the team hopes to gauge whether a new concept resonates with a highly specific target segment. "We’ll probably put the game in the hands of 100 Helldivers players, and then we’ll ask them what their favourite IPs or games are.
If they’re interested in aliens and they like Helldivers and they like the game they’re playing with us, then we know that they should score the game higher than the control group that all like Helldivers, but aliens isn’t their favourite," he explained. This data‑driven, iterative methodology aims to replace the old habit of keeping a project under wraps for years before a grand reveal. **Looking ahead** In summary, Jorjani’s outlook paints a picture of an industry where long‑standing assumptions have been upended by three converging trends: the ascent of Asian developers, the disruptive potential of AI, and the inertia of lengthy AAA development schedules.
While these forces introduce uncertainty, they also create openings for smaller, more nimble studios that can test ideas quickly, iterate based on real‑world feedback, and carve out niche audiences. "But it requires you to let go of that old playbook of playing your cards close to the chest for years, and then dazzle and razzle," Jorjani concluded, underscoring the need for a cultural shift toward openness, rapid prototyping, and a willingness to embrace new technology without being paralyzed by ethical debates. The future, he suggests, belongs to those who can blend artistic vision with the speed and efficiency of modern tools, all while staying attuned to the evolving tastes of a global player base.