In a recent interview at Gamescom 2026, Emmanuel “Manu” Rosier, Newzoo’s director of market intelligence, warned that the console market would essentially stagnate in 2026 if Rockstar Games did not release Grand Theft Auto VI this year. Rosier told GamesIndustry.biz that the upcoming blockbuster is the sole catalyst capable of delivering any measurable growth for console manufacturers in the upcoming fiscal year.
He also highlighted the forthcoming Nintendo Switch 2 as another, albeit secondary, contributor to the sector’s performance. "Two main forces are shaping the current and future health of the console ecosystem: the arrival of Switch 2 and, more importantly, the launch of Grand Theft Auto VI," Rosier explained. "If GTA VI were not on the schedule for 2026, we would likely see the platform’s revenue dip year‑over‑year. The title is playing a pivotal role in keeping the console market in positive territory." Newzoo’s latest Global Games Market Report backs up Rosier’s comments, forecasting a 5.1% increase in console revenue for 2026, taking total earnings to roughly $46.9 billion.
Within that growth, Grand Theft Auto VI is projected to lift full‑game spending on consoles by an impressive 17.5%, a figure Newzoo describes as the strongest expansion among all business models in the industry. Rosier also noted that the impact of GTA VI will be somewhat cannibalistic, meaning it is likely to draw spending away from other upcoming titles.
This dynamic explains why many developers are shifting their release windows to avoid direct competition with Rockstar’s flagship. When asked whether the 2026 surge driven by GTA VI would normalize in 2027, Rosier replied that the franchise’s enduring catalogue strength suggests the effect will be more prolonged.
"The story doesn’t end with the 2026 launch; the title continues to generate revenue long after the initial release," he said. He added that the future of GTA Online remains uncertain. "We know a transition is coming, but Take‑Two has been tight‑lipped about the timing and the exact nature of the hand‑off between the current online component and the new version," Rosier said.
"Our 2027 outlook assumes the PC release of GTA VI, which will be another major revenue driver, but we lack concrete details beyond historical patterns observed with previous GTA launches." Regarding pricing, Rosier observed that the market’s price elasticity for a headline title like GTA VI is extremely low. "There is only one GTA VI, and demand is massive.
When a premium title raises its price, it often lifts the entire market, even influencing indie pricing structures. We’ve seen indie games move from $20 to $30 as the top‑tier pricing climbs." Beyond consoles, Newzoo’s report reaffirms mobile gaming’s dominance. Mobile is expected to capture 57% of global gaming revenue in 2026, amounting to $121.1 billion—a 6.8% year‑on‑year increase driven by higher player spend and the expansion of direct‑to‑consumer storefronts.
The report also highlighted the impressive pre‑order performance of GTA VI. In the first week after pre‑orders opened, the title generated roughly $260 million in revenue, underscoring the franchise’s massive pull and the anticipation built over years of speculation. In summary, Newzoo’s analysis paints a picture of a console market heavily reliant on two key catalysts in 2026: the next‑generation Nintendo Switch and Rockstar’s Grand Theft Auto VI. Without the latter, console earnings would likely flatten, erasing the modest growth projected for the year.
The launch is expected to not only boost full‑game spending but also reshape pricing dynamics across the industry, while mobile continues its march as the primary revenue engine for global gaming.