In a recent interview at Gamescom 2026, Emmanuel “Manu” Rosier, Newzoo’s director of market intelligence, warned that the console sector would essentially break even in 2026 if it were not for the release of Rockstar Games’ highly anticipated title, Grand Theft Auto VI. Rosier explained to GamesIndustry.biz that, apart from the upcoming Nintendo Switch 2, the only catalyst capable of delivering measurable growth to the console market this year is the blockbuster launch of GTA VI. "There are two main drivers shaping the current and future health of consoles: the Switch 2 and, of course, the release of Grand Theft Auto VI this year, which will push the market upward," Rosier said. He added a hypothetical scenario to illustrate the impact: "If GTA VI were not arriving in 2026, the platform would actually decline year‑on‑year.
The title is the primary reason consoles will record positive growth in 2026." Newzoo’s freshly published Global Games Market Report backs up this optimism, forecasting a 5.1% increase in console revenue for 2026, bringing the total to $46.9 billion. Within that figure, GTA VI is projected to lift full‑game spending on consoles by an impressive 17.5%, a growth rate that Newzoo labels as the strongest among all business models in the industry.
Rosier also noted that the massive pull of GTA VI is likely to be "cannibalistic" to other titles, a phenomenon that has already prompted several developers to shift their launch windows to avoid direct competition with Rockstar’s flagship. When asked whether the surge in sales caused by GTA VI would be a one‑off spike that might normalize or even dip in 2027, Rosier emphasized the enduring power of the franchise. "The strength of Grand Theft Auto as a catalogue title is enormous; the story doesn’t end in 2026," he said.
He acknowledged the uncertainty surrounding the future of GTA Online, stating, "We have no certainty about what GTA Online will become in the coming months and year. We know there will be a transition at some point, but Take‑Two has not been communicating about it, so we don’t know when the hand‑off between the current GTA ecosystem and the new title will happen. We do know it generates a lot of revenue. Our 2027 forecast already includes the PC launch of GTA VI, which will be a major driver, but beyond that we’re largely extrapolating from past patterns." On pricing, Rosier observed that the market’s price elasticity for a marquee title like GTA VI is extremely low.
"When a single, highly anticipated game commands a premium price, it tends to lift the overall price floor across the industry. Indie titles that were $20 are now $30, and the average price point is nudging upward," he explained. He added that the prolonged anticipation—"Everyone’s been waiting so long"—means that consumers are willing to pay more, even if the price point is higher than typical releases. While consoles are set to benefit from GTA VI, Newzoo’s report reiterates that mobile gaming remains the dominant revenue generator worldwide.
Mobile is forecast to capture 57% of total global game revenue in 2026, amounting to $121.1 billion—a 6.8% year‑on‑year increase driven by higher player spend and the continued expansion of direct‑to‑consumer storefronts. The report also highlighted the impressive pre‑order performance of GTA VI. In the first week after pre‑orders opened, the title generated $260 million in revenue, underscoring the strong demand and the willingness of gamers to invest early in a flagship experience.
In summary, Newzoo’s analysis paints a picture of a console market that would otherwise be flat or even declining without the launch of Grand Theft Auto VI. The combination of a new Nintendo Switch 2 and the blockbuster release creates a rare growth window for consoles in 2026. However, the broader industry landscape continues to be dominated by mobile, which commands the majority of global gaming dollars. As the year unfolds, the real test will be whether GTA VI can sustain its momentum beyond the initial launch window and how the ecosystem around GTA Online evolves, factors that will shape both console and cross‑platform revenues in the years to come.