In a recent interview at Gamescom 2026, Emmanuel “Manu” Rosier, Newzoo’s director of market intelligence, warned that the console segment would essentially break even with 2025 if Rockstar Games did not release Grand Theft Auto VI this year. Rosier explained to GamesIndustry.biz that the upcoming GTA 6 title is the single most powerful catalyst keeping the console market on an upward trajectory for 2026, and that the anticipated Nintendo Switch 2 also adds a modest lift to the overall picture. "Two primary forces are shaping the current and near‑future health of consoles: the arrival of Switch 2 and, more importantly, the release of Grand Theft Auto VI in 2026, which will propel the market forward," Rosier said.
He added that without the blockbuster launch, the console ecosystem would likely experience a year‑over‑year decline, underscoring how pivotal GTA 6 has become for the industry’s growth narrative. Newzoo’s latest Global Games Market Report quantifies this optimism.
The firm estimates console revenue will climb 5.1 percent in 2026, reaching roughly $46.9 billion. Within that growth, GTA 6 is projected to lift full‑game spending on consoles by an impressive 17.5 percent, making it the strongest growth driver among all business models tracked by Newzoo. Rosier also highlighted a secondary effect of the GTA 6 launch: it will likely cannibalise sales of other titles released around the same window.
This phenomenon explains why many developers are shifting their release schedules to avoid direct competition with Rockstar’s flagship. "The launch will be cannibalistic to some other games," Rosier noted, suggesting that studios are strategically timing their drops to sidestep the inevitable sales dip that accompanies a GTA release.
When asked whether the 2026 spike in revenue would be a one‑off "GTA bump" that might correct itself in 2027, Rosier emphasized the enduring strength of the Grand Theft Auto brand. "The catalogue value of GTA is enormous," he said, indicating that the impact does not simply end when the initial sales surge subsides. The longevity of GTA Online, ongoing micro‑transactions, and future content updates will continue to feed revenue streams well beyond the launch year. Regarding the future of GTA Online, Rosier admitted that Newzoo lacks concrete details about Take‑Two’s roadmap.
"We have no certainty about what GTA Online will become in the coming months and year," he explained. "We know a transition is coming, but Take‑Two has not communicated the timing, so we can only infer based on past patterns from previous GTA cycles." Looking ahead to 2027, Newzoo’s forecast incorporates the PC release of GTA 6 as another major growth engine. However, the firm cautions that without explicit guidance from the publisher, any projection remains speculative. Rosier reiterated that the analyst team bases its outlook on historical performance and market dynamics rather than insider information.
The discussion also touched on pricing strategy. Rosier observed that when a marquee title like GTA 6 commands a premium price, it can lift the overall price elasticity of the market. "Price elasticity is very low because there is only one GTA 6," he said, noting that the game’s high price point can set a new benchmark that influences pricing across the broader industry, including indie titles that may see their average price creep upward from $20 to $30. Beyond consoles, Newzoo’s report reaffirmed mobile gaming’s dominance.
Mobile is expected to account for 57 percent of global gaming revenue in 2026, amounting to $121.1 billion—a 6.8 percent year‑over‑year increase driven by higher player spend and the maturation of direct‑to‑consumer storefronts. The report also recalled that GTA 6 pre‑orders generated $260 million in their first week, underscoring the massive demand and the immediate financial impact of the title’s launch window. In summary, Newzoo’s analysis paints a picture of a console market that would otherwise be stagnant without the catalytic effect of Grand Theft Auto VI.
The combination of a new Nintendo Switch iteration and the blockbuster release creates a rare growth scenario for consoles, while the broader gaming ecosystem continues to be led by mobile’s expanding revenue share. The data suggests that the industry’s health in 2026 will be closely tied to Rockstar’s ability to deliver a compelling, high‑spending experience, and that the ripple effects of this launch will be felt across multiple platforms and business models for years to come.