Shams Jorjani, the chief executive of Arrowhead Game Studios – the team behind Helldivers 2 – told GamesIndustry.biz at Gamescom that the video‑game sector is currently undergoing a profound transformation. He described the present moment as a "transitional phase" and warned that the playbooks that guided developers and publishers throughout the 2010s have lost their effectiveness.
"There have been periods of doom‑and‑gloom, but overall the industry remains healthy," Jorjani explained. "What has changed is the foundation of our assumptions.
The formulas that worked from 2010 to 2020 simply don’t apply any longer. The bottom line of every business case has been eroded. In the past we could make a reasonable guess about a title’s sales; now you have to subtract that estimate by essentially zero.
That’s the new reality." He identified several key drivers behind this shift. First, the continued ascent of developers from the Asia‑Pacific region is reshaping the global market.
This year's Gamescom Opening Night Live highlighted the capabilities of studios from China and South Korea, underscoring how Asian games are now a regular fixture in Western storefronts. "For a decade there’s been a gradual increase of Asian companies entering the Western arena," Jorjani said. "Now it feels like game after game is arriving from that part of the world, and the quality is finally matching the volume." China, in particular, appears to have reached a tipping point.
Jorjani noted that Chinese studios are producing titles of a caliber that can compete on the global stage, even though the domestic market is still heavily mobile‑centric. This mobile focus influences design sensibilities, but the rapid pace of development is accelerating, a trend he attributes in part to artificial intelligence.
AI, according to Jorjani, is the most disruptive technology the industry has seen in recent memory. While past hype cycles—such as virtual reality—proved fleeting, AI is altering both creation pipelines and market dynamics in a way that makes long‑term forecasting extremely challenging. "In the West we’re debating ethics, data ownership, and whether AI should be restricted on artistic grounds," he observed.
"In the East, the conversation is almost non‑existent; developers simply adopt the technology because it works and speeds up production." He added that Western developers are experiencing an existential dilemma: artists are confronted with tools that can generate functional code or assets without the same emotional involvement that traditional development demands. This cultural split may cause the West to adopt AI more slowly, but Jorjani believes the technology will eventually become ubiquitous. Beyond AI, Jorjani highlighted the structural difficulty of planning around AAA projects, which often require five to six years of coordinated work across multiple continents.
The lengthy development timelines have encouraged publishers in the West to lean on established franchises rather than gamble on new intellectual property. "Long cycles mean you need a very certain bet," he said. "The only thing that truly mitigates that risk is brand recognition. If a player sees a familiar logo, they know what to expect, which reduces the perceived gamble." He pointed to a phenomenon he calls "analysis paralysis": the market is flooded with new releases, making it hard for consumers to decide where to spend their time and money.
Recognizable series like Worms or Helldivers provide a shortcut for players who want a known experience, even if the game isn’t revolutionary. Data from Steam supports this behavior: roughly half of the activity on the platform comes from titles that are more than 18 months old, and a 2025 Steam Replay report showed that 44 % of playtime was devoted to games released between one and seven years ago.
Despite vocal calls for fresh IP, most gamers continue to purchase familiar franchises or remakes. Jorjani cited companies such as Riot Games and Supercell as examples of studios that can sustain multiple projects in parallel, allowing a hit to subsidize the others.
For indie developers, however, the advantage lies in speed and early feedback. "The secret sauce of any successful title is early validation," he asserted. "The faster you can show something to a player and get a positive reaction, the sooner you know you’re on the right track and can iterate. This is the strength of the indie model." He recounted how the indie game Tiny Glade exploded after the developers posted a few early GIFs that went viral week after week—a stark contrast to a four‑year AAA cycle where marketing only ramps up near the end.
Arrowhead is already applying this philosophy to its upcoming project. The studio plans to involve a select group of Helldivers fans early in the development process, gathering granular feedback on preferences such as alien themes versus other genres. By segmenting the audience and measuring responses, the team hopes to fine‑tune the game’s direction long before a full‑scale launch. "We’ll hand the prototype to about a hundred dedicated Helldivers players and ask them about their favorite IPs and what excites them," Jorjani explained.
"If they love aliens and enjoy our current title, that’s a strong indicator we’re hitting the right niche. This kind of targeted, early testing is far more efficient than waiting two years for broad user data." He concluded by emphasizing that the old approach—keeping a project under wraps for years before a massive reveal—must be abandoned in favor of continuous, transparent engagement with the community. "To succeed now you have to let go of the old playbook that kept your cards close to your chest for years," Jorjani warned. "Instead, you need to dazzle players early, iterate fast, and let the market guide you.
The industry is changing at its core, and those who adapt will be the ones that thrive."