According to Newzoo’s latest market intelligence, the console segment would essentially see no growth in 2026 if Rockstar Games did not release Grand Theft Auto VI this year. Emmanuel “Manu” Rosier, Newzoo’s director of market intelligence, explained to GamesIndustry.biz during Gamescom 2026 that the upcoming GTA VI title is the single most important catalyst keeping the console market from slipping into negative territory. Rosier also highlighted the upcoming Nintendo Switch 2 as another factor that is currently helping to sustain console performance, but he stressed that the impact of GTA VI dwarfs all other influences. "There are two drivers that are explaining the current and future performance of consoles: Switch 2 and, obviously, the release of Grand Theft Auto VI this year, which is going to drive the market up," Rosier said.
He added that without the blockbuster, the console market would likely experience a year‑on‑year decline: "If in 2026, let's say Grand Theft Auto VI wasn't coming out, then you would have a platform going down year‑on‑year. GTA is really helping consoles achieve positive growth in 2026." Newzoo’s freshly published Global Games Market Report forecasts a 5.1 percent increase in console revenue for 2026, bringing total earnings to $46.9 billion. Within that growth, GTA VI is projected to lift full‑game spending on consoles by 17.5 percent, making it the strongest growth driver among all business models tracked by Newzoo. The analyst firm describes this surge as the "strongest growth of any business model," underscoring the unique pull that a major Rockstar release can exert across the entire console ecosystem.
Rosier warned that the launch of GTA VI will be "cannibalistic to some other games," a phenomenon that explains why many developers have shifted their release windows to avoid direct competition with Rockstar’s flagship title. By moving launch dates, studios hope to preserve their own sales momentum rather than be eclipsed by the massive marketing push and consumer excitement surrounding GTA VI. When asked whether the 2026 market would experience a pronounced "GTA bump" that might level off in 2027, Rosier emphasized the enduring strength of the Grand Theft Auto brand.
"The strength of Grand Theft Auto as a catalogue title is huge, meaning that the story doesn't end at the end in 2026," he said. He noted that the long‑term revenue potential extends beyond the initial launch, especially given the ongoing popularity of GTA Online and future updates that could keep players engaged for years. "We have no certainty about what GTA Online will become in the coming months and year," Rosier admitted.
"We know there will be a transition at some point, but Take‑Two has not been communicating about it, so we don't know when it's going to be the fit between current GTA and new GTA. We know it's also generating a lot of revenue. Our forecast for 2027 includes the launch of Grand Theft Auto VI on PC, so that's a big driver obviously. But we have no information of any kind.
We're just looking at the past and how things unfolded for the previous Grand Theft Auto title." Rosier also discussed pricing dynamics, noting that the price elasticity for a title like GTA VI is unusually low because there is only one flagship version. "Sometimes one publisher leads the way and then others follow; the price elasticity is very low because there is only one GTA VI," he explained. He pointed out that the high anticipation has allowed Rockstar to set a premium price without deterring buyers, and that this trend often lifts the overall market price floor.
"Everyone's been waiting so long," he said. "It doesn't mean that everyone can do that. But usually when the top pricing increases, it lifts the market; the indie game became $30 rather than $20.
The prices are being lifted a little bit." Beyond consoles, Newzoo’s report reaffirms that mobile remains the dominant platform, projected to generate 57 percent of global gaming revenue in 2026—about $121.1 billion, a 6.8 percent year‑on‑year increase. This growth is driven by higher player spending, expanded direct‑to‑consumer storefronts, and the continued maturation of mobile monetisation models. The report also referenced the strong early performance of GTA VI pre‑orders, which amassed roughly $260 million in revenue within the first week of availability. This early cash flow underscores the massive consumer appetite for Rockstar’s flagship series and provides a glimpse into the broader financial impact the title will have across hardware sales, accessory purchases, and ancillary services such as online subscriptions.
In summary, Newzoo’s analysis paints a picture of a console market that would be stagnant without the catalytic effect of GTA VI. While the Nintendo Switch 2 will contribute to a modest uplift, the primary engine of growth is undeniably Rockstar’s upcoming release. The data suggests that both short‑term spikes and longer‑term revenue streams associated with GTA VI will be crucial in sustaining console profitability through 2026 and beyond, even as mobile continues to dominate overall gaming spend.