If Rockstar Games does not release Grand Theft Auto VI this year, the worldwide console market would essentially break even with the figures recorded in 2025, according to Newzoo’s market intelligence chief Emmanuel “Manu” Rosier. He shared this insight with GamesIndustry.biz during the Gamescom 2026 conference, emphasizing that the upcoming blockbuster is the single catalyst that will keep the console segment in growth territory for the next twelve months. Rosier also highlighted the role of Nintendo’s next‑generation handheld, the Switch 2, as another important contributor to the modest upswing in console performance. “There are two main drivers shaping the present and future health of the console ecosystem: the Switch 2 and, of course, the launch of Grand Theft Auto VI this year, which will push the market upward,” he explained.
He went on to illustrate the hypothetical scenario of a GTA‑free 2026: “If Grand Theft Auto VI weren’t arriving in 2026, we would see the platform’s revenue decline year over year. GTA is the engine that will deliver positive growth for consoles in 2026.” Newzoo’s latest Global Games Market Report quantifies this optimism, forecasting a 5.1% increase in console revenue for 2026, taking the total to $46.9 billion. Within that growth, GTA VI is projected to boost full‑game spending on consoles by 17.5%, which Newzoo labels as the strongest expansion among all business models in the sector.
Rosier warned that the massive pull of GTA VI will likely be "cannibalistic" to other titles, a factor that explains why many developers have shifted their release windows to avoid direct competition with Rockstar’s flagship. When asked whether the 2026 surge will be a one‑off spike that normalizes in 2027, Rosier replied that the strength of the Grand Theft Auto franchise extends beyond a single launch. “The catalogue value of GTA is huge, so the story doesn’t end in 2026,” he said. He added that the future of GTA Online remains uncertain: “We have no certainty about what GTA Online will become in the coming months and year.
We know a transition will happen at some point, but Take‑Two has not communicated a timeline, so we can’t pinpoint when the current GTA ecosystem will give way to the new title. Nonetheless, it continues to generate substantial revenue.” Rosier noted that Newzoo’s 2027 outlook already incorporates the PC release of GTA VI, which will serve as another significant revenue driver, even though the firm lacks concrete data on the exact timing or scale of that launch. Discussing the pricing strategy for GTA VI, Rosier observed that when a leading publisher raises its flagship price, the entire market tends to follow suit because price elasticity is low for a unique, highly anticipated product. "There’s only one GTA VI," he said, "so the demand is inelastic.
Everyone’s been waiting so long that a higher price point doesn’t deter purchases; instead, it can lift the overall price floor for other games, nudging indie titles from $20 toward $30." Beyond consoles, Newzoo’s report reaffirms that mobile gaming remains the dominant revenue generator worldwide, projected to capture 57% of total game sales in 2026—equating to $121.1 billion, a 6.8% year‑on‑year increase. This growth is driven by higher player spending and the continued expansion of direct‑to‑consumer storefronts on smartphones and tablets.
The report also referenced earlier data indicating that GTA VI pre‑orders generated roughly $260 million in the first week after they opened, underscoring the franchise’s ability to mobilize massive consumer interest even before the game’s official release. In summary, Newzoo’s analysis paints a picture of a console market that would otherwise stagnate without the catalytic effect of Grand Theft Auto VI. Coupled with the launch of the Switch 2 and a broader trend of rising prices across the industry, the 2026 console landscape is set to experience modest but meaningful growth, while mobile continues its reign as the primary engine of global gaming revenue.