Shams Jorjani, chief executive of Arrowhead Game Studios—the studio behind Helldivers 2—recently told GamesIndustry.biz at Gamescom that the video‑game sector is undergoing a profound transition. He argues that the formulas that guided developers and publishers throughout the 2010s have largely lost their effectiveness in today’s market. "There have been moments of doom‑and‑gloom, but overall the industry is healthy," Jorjani explained.
"What’s changed is that the foundations of our assumptions have shifted dramatically. The playbooks that served us from 2010 to 2020 simply don’t apply any longer.
The bottom line has been stripped from every business case we once relied on. No one could predict a title’s sales with certainty, but they used to assume a minimum figure. Take that number, subtract zero, and you have the new reality." Several forces are driving this upheaval.
One of the most visible is the continued rise of developers from the Asia‑Pacific region. This year’s Gamescom Opening Night Live highlighted the impressive output of studios from China and South Korea, underscoring how Asian creators are increasingly shaping the global gaming landscape. "For a decade there’s been a steady influx of Asian games and companies into Western markets," Jorjani said.
"Now it’s reached a tipping point where game after game from that region is breaking through and commanding attention." China, in particular, appears to have arrived at a quality crossroads. While the Chinese market remains heavily mobile‑centric—a factor that influences design sensibilities—the overall polish and ambition of Chinese titles are climbing.
Jorjani believes AI is accelerating this trend, enabling developers to iterate faster and bring more products to market. "The Chinese audience is still primarily mobile‑first, which colors the way games are built," he noted.
"But AI is speeding everything up, so we’re seeing a flood of new releases worldwide." Artificial intelligence, Jorjani argues, is the most disruptive technology the industry has faced since the advent of virtual reality. Unlike previous hype cycles, AI is delivering tangible changes that affect everything from asset creation to gameplay design, yet its adoption varies dramatically across regions.
"In the West we’re debating ethics, data‑training rights, and whether AI undermines artistic integrity," he said. "In the East, there’s far less hesitation—companies are embracing AI wholesale because the priority is functional code, not an existential artistic debate." He observes that Western developers are experiencing an "existential crisis" as AI blurs the line between creative expression and software engineering. While the West may adopt AI more cautiously, Jorjani expects the technology will eventually become ubiquitous. Beyond AI, the sheer length of development cycles for AAA titles adds another layer of uncertainty.
Projects that span five or six years require coordination across multiple studios and time zones, making publishers wary of investing in untested intellectual property. Consequently, many Western publishers have leaned on established franchises to mitigate risk. "Long cycles mean you have to be absolutely sure your bet will pay off," Jorjani explained. "Brand recognition is the safest hedge.
If you launch a new Worms sequel, players already know the core loop, even if they’re unsure about innovation. Data shows that a substantial portion of Steam playtime is spent on games older than eighteen months, indicating that gamers gravitate toward familiar titles rather than unproven new IPs." He cites the success of Helldivers as a rare case where a newcomer broke through the noise, attributing it to a mix of luck and a distinctive "secret sauce" that made the game instantly recognizable. The CEO also points to companies like Riot Games and Supercell, which juggle multiple projects simultaneously. When one title becomes a blockbuster, the others fade into the background, creating space for smaller studios to capture attention.
"Indie developers have a strategic edge because they can validate ideas early," Jorjani said. "The moment you share a GIF or a short demo and receive positive feedback, you know you’re on the right track and can iterate quickly. That’s the power of rapid software cycles." He highlighted Tiny Glade as an example of an indie title that exploded in popularity after early visual teasers went viral. In contrast, a four‑year AAA development pipeline forces studios to wait until the product is finished before launching a massive marketing push, reducing flexibility.
Arrowhead itself is adopting an early‑validation approach for its upcoming project. Inspired by mobile‑game studios that test concepts through ads, the company plans to place prototypes directly in the hands of a select group of players. "We’ll give the game to about a hundred Helldivers veterans and ask them about their favorite IPs and genres," Jorjani explained. "If they love aliens and enjoy Helldivers, we know we’re hitting the right niche.
This feedback loop happens early, not two years after launch." He emphasized that this method requires abandoning the old playbook of keeping development secrets for years before a grand reveal. Instead, Arrowhead intends to embrace transparency, gather data, and iterate based on real‑world player responses. In summary, Jorjani paints a picture of an industry in flux: longer development timelines, a surge of high‑quality Asian games, and the disruptive influence of AI are reshaping how studios plan and execute projects.
While these changes introduce risk and unpredictability, they also open doors for agile indie developers who can test, learn, and adapt quickly. Arrowhead’s own strategy reflects this new reality—prioritizing early player involvement, leveraging brand familiarity when possible, and staying nimble in a market where the old assumptions no longer hold true.