In a recent interview at Gamescom 2026, Emmanuel “Manu” Rosier, Newzoo’s director of market intelligence, warned that the console ecosystem would essentially see no growth in 2026 if Rockstar Games did not release Grand Theft Auto VI (GTA 6) this year. According to Rosier, the upcoming open‑world crime saga is the single most powerful catalyst that will prevent console revenue from slipping into negative territory and will actually push the market into modest expansion.
He also highlighted the anticipated launch of Nintendo’s next‑generation handheld, the Switch 2, as a secondary but still significant contributor to the console segment’s performance. "There are two drivers that are explaining the current and future performance of consoles: Switch 2 and, obviously, the release of Grand Theft Auto 6 this year, which is going to drive the market up," Rosier told GamesIndustry.biz. "If in 2026, let's say Grand Theft Auto 6 wasn't coming out, then you would have a platform going down year‑on‑year. GTA is really helping consoles achieve positive growth in 2026." Newzoo’s latest Global Games Market Report backs up those statements with hard numbers.
The firm forecasts that total console revenue will rise 5.1 percent in 2026, reaching roughly $46.9 billion. Within that growth, GTA 6 is projected to lift full‑game spending on consoles by an impressive 17.5 percent, a rate that Newzoo describes as the strongest growth among all business models in the industry. In other words, the title is expected to generate more revenue per unit than any other game or service released this year.
Rosier also noted that the sheer size of the GTA 6 launch is likely to be cannibalistic, meaning it could divert spending away from other upcoming releases. This dynamic explains why many developers have deliberately shifted their launch windows to avoid direct competition with Rockstar’s blockbuster. "The launch of Grand Theft Auto 6 is going to be cannibalistic to some other games," he said, underscoring the strategic scheduling decisions studios are making across the board. When asked whether the 2026 spike in sales would be a one‑off "GTA bump" that might taper off in 2027, Rosier emphasized the enduring strength of the franchise.
"The strength of Grand Theft Auto as a catalogue title is huge, meaning that the story doesn't end at the end in 2026," he explained. He added that the future of GTA Online remains uncertain, as Take‑Two has not disclosed a clear roadmap for the transition between the current online component and the new iteration that will accompany GTA 6 on consoles. "We have no certainty about what GTA Online will become in the coming months and year," Rosier admitted. "We know there will be a transition at some point, but Take‑Two has not been communicating about it, so we don't know when it's going to be the fit between current GTA and new GTA.
We know it's also generating a lot of revenue. Our forecast for 2027 includes the launch of Grand Theft Auto 6 on PC, so that's a big driver obviously.
But we have no information of any kind. We're just looking at the past and how things unfolded for the previous Grand Theft Auto title." Pricing also plays a role in the market dynamics.
Rosier observed that the price elasticity for a flagship title like GTA 6 is extremely low because there is essentially only one product to buy. "Everyone's been waiting so long," he said. "It doesn't mean that everyone can do that.
But usually when the top pricing increases, it lifts the market; the indie game became $30 rather than $20. The prices are being lifted a little bit." Beyond consoles, Newzoo’s report reaffirms that mobile gaming remains the dominant revenue generator worldwide. Mobile is forecast to capture 57 percent of total global game revenue in 2026, amounting to $121.1 billion—a 6.8 percent year‑on‑year increase driven by higher player spend and the continued expansion of direct‑to‑consumer storefronts.
The report also highlighted early pre‑order performance for GTA 6. In its first week of availability, pre‑orders generated roughly $260 million in revenue, indicating strong consumer appetite even before the game’s official launch. This early cash flow further bolsters the case that GTA 6 will be a pivotal revenue engine not just for Rockstar but for the entire console market.
In summary, Newzoo’s analysis paints a picture of a console sector that would otherwise be stagnant or even declining in 2026 without the dual boost from Nintendo’s Switch 2 and Rockstar’s Grand Theft Auto VI. The anticipated 5.1 percent rise to $46.9 billion in console revenue hinges heavily on GTA 6’s ability to drive a 17.5 percent surge in full‑game spending.
While the title may cannibalize some competing releases and its pricing elasticity appears limited, the overall impact on the ecosystem is expected to be overwhelmingly positive, setting the stage for continued growth into 2027 and beyond.