If Grand Theft Auto VI does not arrive in 2026, the console market would essentially break even with the previous year, according to Newzoo’s market intelligence chief Emmanuel “Manu” Rosier. Speaking to GamesIndustry.biz at Gamescom 2026, Rosier emphasized that Rockstar’s flagship crime‑action series is the single most important catalyst for any growth in the console segment this year. He also highlighted the upcoming Nintendo Switch 2 as another positive contributor, but made clear that without GTA VI the overall platform revenue would likely decline year over year.
"There are two drivers that are explaining the current and future performance of consoles: Switch 2 and, obviously, the release of Grand Theft Auto 6 this year, which is going to drive the market up," Rosier told the outlet. "If in 2026, let's say Grand Theft Auto 6 wasn't coming out, then you would have a platform going down year‑on‑year. GTA is really helping consoles achieve positive growth in 2026." Newzoo’s latest Global Games Market Report backs up Rosier’s remarks.
The report forecasts a 5.1 percent increase in console revenue for 2026, taking the total to $46.9 billion. Within that figure, GTA VI is projected to boost full‑game spending on consoles by 17.5 percent, making it the strongest growth engine among all business models tracked by the firm. Rosier also warned that the massive launch of GTA VI will be "cannibalistic" to other titles, a dynamic that has already prompted many developers to shift their release windows to avoid direct competition with Rockstar’s juggernaut.
When asked whether the 2026 surge would be a one‑off spike that normalizes in 2027, Rosier argued that the enduring strength of the Grand Theft Auto brand means the impact will extend beyond the initial launch window. "The strength of Grand Theft Auto as a catalogue title is huge, meaning that the story doesn't end at the end in 2026," he said.
The analyst admitted that the future of GTA Online remains uncertain. "We have no certainty about what GTA Online will become in the coming months and year," Rosier noted. "We know there will be a transition at some point, but Take‑Two has not been communicating about it, so we don't know when it's going to be the fit between current GTA and new GTA. We know it's also generating a lot of revenue.
Our forecast for 2027 includes the launch of Grand Theft Auto 6 on PC, so that's a big driver obviously. But we have no information of any kind.
We're just looking at the past and how things unfolded for the previous Grand Theft Auto title." Discussing pricing, Rosier observed that Rockstar can set a premium price for GTA VI with relatively little pushback because the title enjoys near‑unique demand. "The price elasticity is very low because there is only one GTA 6," he explained. He added that when a flagship game commands a higher price, it can lift the overall market, noting that indie titles have already seen price hikes from $20 to $30 in recent months. "Everyone's been waiting so long," Rosier said.
"It doesn't mean that everyone can do that, but usually when the top pricing increases, it lifts the market." While consoles are poised for modest growth thanks to GTA VI and the Switch 2, Newzoo’s report reaffirms that mobile remains the dominant revenue generator in the gaming ecosystem. Mobile is expected to capture 57 percent of global game revenue in 2026, amounting to $121.1 billion—a 6.8 percent year‑on‑year increase driven by higher player spending and the continued expansion of direct‑to‑consumer storefronts. The report also recalled that GTA VI pre‑orders alone generated $260 million in the first week after they opened, underscoring the title’s massive commercial pull. In summary, without the blockbuster release of Grand Theft Auto VI, the console segment would likely see flat or declining revenue in 2026.
With the game’s launch—and the anticipated arrival of the Nintendo Switch 2—Newzoo expects a modest but meaningful uplift, while the broader industry continues to be led by mobile gaming’s expanding share of the market.