If Grand Theft Auto VI does not arrive in 2026, the console market would essentially break even with the previous year, according to Newzoo’s market‑intelligence chief Emmanuel “Manu” Rosier. He explained his outlook during an interview with GamesIndustry.biz at Gamescom 2026, emphasizing that Rockstar’s flagship crime‑action title is the single catalyst capable of delivering any meaningful growth to the console segment this year. Rosier also highlighted the upcoming Nintendo Switch 2 as another positive influence, but he made clear that the two forces together are what keep the console ecosystem from slipping into decline. "There are two drivers that are explaining the current and future performance of consoles: Switch 2 and, obviously, the release of Grand Theft Auto VI this year, which is going to drive the market up," Rosier said.
"If in 2026, let's say Grand Theft Auto VI wasn't coming out, then you would have a platform going down year‑on‑year. GTA is really helping consoles achieve positive growth in 2026." Newzoo’s latest Global Games Market Report reinforces this narrative. The firm forecasts a 5.1% increase in console revenue for 2026, pushing total earnings to $46.9 billion.
Within that growth, GTA VI is projected to lift full‑game spending on consoles by 17.5%, a figure Newzoo describes as the strongest expansion among all business models in the sector. This surge is expected to ripple through the ecosystem, influencing everything from hardware sales to ancillary services. Rosier warned that the launch of GTA VI will be "cannibalistic" to other titles, a phenomenon that explains why many developers have strategically shifted their release windows to avoid direct competition with Rockstar’s blockbuster.
By postponing launches, studios hope to preserve their own sales momentum rather than being eclipsed by the massive consumer attention GTA VI will command. When asked whether the 2026 spike would be a one‑off "GTA bump" that might normalize in 2027, Rosier pointed to the enduring power of the franchise. "The strength of Grand Theft Auto as a catalogue title is huge, meaning that the story doesn't end at the end in 2026," he noted. He added that the future of GTA Online remains uncertain, as Take‑Two has not disclosed a clear roadmap for the transition between the existing online component and the new iteration.
"We know there will be a transition at some point, but Take‑Two has not been communicating about it, so we don't know when it's going to be the fit between current GTA and new GTA," Rosier said. Looking ahead to 2027, Newzoo’s forecast includes the PC launch of GTA VI, which is expected to be another substantial driver of revenue.
However, Rosier cautioned that the firm lacks concrete information about Take‑Two’s plans, so the projection is based largely on historical patterns observed with previous GTA releases. The discussion also touched on pricing dynamics. Rosier observed that when a flagship title like GTA VI commands a premium price, it can lift the overall market’s price elasticity. "Sometimes one publisher leads the way and then others follow; the price elasticity is very low because there is only one GTA VI," he explained.
He suggested that higher price points for top‑tier games tend to ripple outward, nudging indie titles upward from $20 to $30, thereby modestly raising average spend per user across the board. Beyond consoles, Newzoo’s report reaffirms mobile gaming’s dominance.
Mobile is projected to capture 57% of global gaming revenue in 2026, amounting to $121.1 billion—a 6.8% year‑on‑year increase driven by stronger player spending and the continued expansion of direct‑to‑consumer storefronts. This underscores the multi‑platform nature of the industry, where consoles rely heavily on marquee releases like GTA VI to offset slower growth elsewhere.
In a related note, Newzoo previously estimated that pre‑orders for GTA VI generated roughly $260 million in revenue during the first week they became available, illustrating the immediate financial impact of consumer anticipation for the title. In summary, the data and commentary from Newzoo and its market‑intelligence director paint a clear picture: without the launch of Grand Theft Auto VI, console revenue would likely plateau or even dip in 2026.
The combination of the new Nintendo Switch 2 and the blockbuster GTA VI release forms the twin engine propelling the console market forward, while the broader industry continues to be anchored by mobile’s overwhelming share of total gaming revenue.