Newzoo Predicts Console Earnings Would Stagnate in 2026 Without GTA 6 Launch

In a recent interview at Gamescom 2026, Emmanuel “Manu” Rosier, Newzoo’s director of market intelligence, warned that the console market would essentially be flat in 2026 if Rockstar Games did not release Grand Theft Auto VI this year. Rosier explained to GamesIndustry.biz that the upcoming blockbuster is the single most powerful catalyst keeping the console ecosystem on an upward trajectory, and that without it the sector would likely see a year‑on‑year decline. Rosier also highlighted the role of Nintendo’s next‑generation handheld, the Switch 2, as another important contributor to the modest growth seen in the console segment. “There are two main drivers that are shaping both the current and future health of consoles,” he said.

“First, the Switch 2, which is expanding the install base and attracting new players, and second, the release of Grand Theft Auto VI, which is set to lift the market substantially.” He went on to illustrate the hypothetical scenario of a 2026 without GTA VI: “If Grand Theft Auto VI were not arriving, we would be looking at a platform that is actually shrinking compared with 2025. GTA’s presence is the reason we are still posting positive growth for consoles in 2026.” Newzoo’s latest Global Games Market Report supports Rosier’s statements. The report forecasts a 5.1% increase in console revenue for 2026, bringing total earnings to approximately $46.9 billion. Within that growth, Grand Theft Auto VI is projected to boost full‑game spending on consoles by 17.5%, a figure Newzoo describes as the strongest growth among all business models in the industry.

Rosier acknowledged that the massive draw of GTA VI will inevitably cannibalize sales of other titles. He noted that many developers are strategically shifting their release windows to avoid direct competition with Rockstar’s flagship launch, a common practice when a high‑profile game dominates consumer attention and discretionary spending.

When asked whether the 2026 surge caused by GTA VI would be a one‑off spike that might level off or even reverse in 2027, Rosier emphasized the enduring strength of the Grand Theft Auto franchise. “The catalogue value of GTA is huge,” he said. “The story doesn’t end with the 2026 release; the title continues to generate revenue through updates, expansions, and its online component for years to come.” Rosier admitted that Newzoo has limited visibility into the future of GTA Online, the persistent multiplayer service that accompanies the main game.

“We know there will be a transition at some point, but Take‑Two has not disclosed details, so we can’t pinpoint when the shift from the current GTA ecosystem to the new version will happen,” he explained. Nonetheless, he noted that the 2027 forecast already incorporates the anticipated PC launch of GTA VI, which should act as another significant revenue driver. Discussing the pricing strategy for GTA VI, Rosier observed that the game’s price elasticity is low because there is essentially only one flagship title in its class.

“When a premium title like GTA VI commands a higher price, it tends to lift the overall market,” he said. “We’ve seen indie titles move from $20 to $30, and that upward pressure on pricing can ripple through the industry.” Beyond consoles, Newzoo’s report reaffirmed mobile gaming’s dominance.

Mobile is expected to capture 57% of global game revenue in 2026, amounting to $121.1 billion—a 6.8% year‑on‑year increase driven by higher player spend and the continued expansion of direct‑to‑consumer storefronts. The report also highlighted the impressive pre‑order performance of GTA VI. In the first week after pre‑orders opened, the title generated $260 million in revenue, underscoring the strong demand and anticipation surrounding the game.

Overall, Rosier’s insights paint a picture of a console market that is heavily dependent on a few marquee releases and next‑gen hardware to sustain growth. While the Switch 2 adds breadth to the install base, the financial health of the platform in 2026 hinges largely on Rockstar’s ability to deliver a blockbuster that resonates with both existing fans and new players.

Should any of these pillars falter, the sector could quickly revert to stagnation or decline, emphasizing the fragile equilibrium that currently underpins console profitability.