If Rockstar Games does not release Grand Theft Auto 6 in 2026, the console market would essentially break even with the figures recorded in 2025, according to Newzoo’s latest analysis. Emmanuel “Manu” Rosier, Newzoo’s director of market intelligence, explained to GamesIndustry.biz during Gamescom 2026 that the upcoming GTA 6 title is the singular catalyst capable of delivering any meaningful growth to the console segment this year.
Rosier also highlighted the role of Nintendo’s next‑generation handheld, the Switch 2, as an additional, albeit secondary, driver of console performance. "There are two forces shaping the present and future health of consoles: the Switch 2 and, of course, the launch of Grand Theft Auto 6 this year, which will push the market upward," Rosier said.
"If GTA 6 were not arriving in 2026, the platform would actually contract on a year‑over‑year basis. GTA is truly the engine that will keep consoles in positive growth territory for 2026." Newzoo’s recently published Global Games Market Report predicts a 5.1% increase in console revenue for 2026, taking the total to $46.9 billion. Within that growth, GTA 6 is expected to lift full‑game spending on consoles by 17.5%, a figure Newzoo describes as the strongest expansion among all business models in the industry. Rosier added that the release of GTA 6 will likely be "cannibalistic" to other titles, a situation that has already prompted several studios to shift their launch windows in order to avoid direct competition with Rockstar’s blockbuster.
When asked whether the market would experience a massive "GTA bump" in 2026 followed by a correction in 2027, Rosier emphasized the enduring power of the Grand Theft Auto franchise. "The strength of GTA as a catalogue title is massive," he noted, "the story doesn’t end at the conclusion of the 2026 release." He also addressed the uncertainty surrounding GTA Online’s future. "We have no certainty about what GTA Online will become in the coming months and year," Rosian said. "We know a transition is inevitable, but Take‑Two has not communicated a timeline, so we cannot pinpoint when the current GTA ecosystem will give way to the new title.
We do know it continues to generate substantial revenue. Our 2027 forecast already incorporates the PC launch of GTA 6, which will be a major growth driver, but beyond that we lack concrete data. We are simply extrapolating from the patterns observed with previous GTA releases." Regarding the pricing of GTA 6, Rosier observed that when a flagship title commands a premium, it often lifts the overall price floor across the industry. "Sometimes one publisher leads the way and others follow; price elasticity is very low because there is only one GTA 6," he explained.
"Everyone has been waiting so long. That doesn’t mean every developer can match that price point, but historically when top‑tier pricing rises, it nudges the market upward. Indie games that were $20 are now $30, and overall price levels are inching higher." The report also reaffirmed mobile gaming’s dominance. Mobile is projected to capture 57% of global gaming revenue in 2026, amounting to $121.1 billion—a 6.8% year‑over‑year increase driven by higher player spend and the expansion of direct‑to‑consumer storefronts.
In a related data point, Newzoo previously estimated that GTA 6 pre‑orders generated roughly $260 million in revenue during the first week after they opened. This early surge underscores the title’s market‑moving potential and reinforces Rosier’s assertion that without GTA 6, console earnings would likely plateau or even dip. Overall, Newzoo’s outlook paints a picture of a console ecosystem heavily reliant on two key pillars for 2026: the anticipated success of Nintendo’s Switch 2 and the blockbuster impact of Grand Theft Auto 6. Should either of these factors underperform, the sector could see stagnant or negative growth, highlighting the high stakes attached to Rockstar’s flagship release and Nintendo’s next‑gen hardware rollout.
The broader industry will be watching closely to see whether GTA 6’s release truly catalyzes the projected 17.5% uplift in full‑game spending and whether the Switch 2 can sustain its momentum alongside the blockbuster title.