In a candid interview at Gamescom 2026, Emmanuel “Manu” Rosier, Newzoo’s director of market intelligence, warned that the console market would essentially flat‑line in 2026 if Rockstar Games did not release Grand Theft Auto VI (GTA 6) this year. Rosier explained to GamesIndustry.biz that the upcoming blockbuster is the single most powerful catalyst keeping the console ecosystem from slipping into negative growth.
While the next‑generation Nintendo Switch 2 also contributes positively, Rosier emphasized that GTA 6 is the dominant force driving the forecasted uplift. "There are two primary drivers shaping the current and future health of console platforms: the launch of Switch 2 and, of course, the release of Grand Theft Auto VI this year, which will push the market upward," Rosier said. He added a hypothetical scenario to illustrate the impact: "If GTA VI were not arriving in 2026, we would see the console segment contract year‑over‑year. The title is essentially rescuing consoles from a decline and delivering genuine growth." Newzoo’s most recent Global Games Market Report backs up Rosier’s statements, projecting a 5.1% increase in console revenue for 2026, bringing total earnings to roughly $46.9 billion.
Within that growth, GTA VI is expected to lift full‑game spending on consoles by an impressive 17.5%, a rate Newzoo describes as the strongest growth among all business models in the industry. The analyst also noted that GTA VI’s launch will likely be "cannibalistic" to other titles, a phenomenon that has already prompted several studios to shift their release windows to avoid direct competition with Rockstar’s flagship. This strategic repositioning underscores the magnitude of GTA VI’s market pull and its capacity to reshape publishing calendars across the board.
When asked whether the 2026 surge driven by GTA VI would be a one‑off spike that might normalize or even dip in 2027, Rosier highlighted the enduring strength of the Grand Theft Auto brand. "The catalogue power of Grand Theft Auto is immense," he explained.
"The story doesn’t end with the 2026 release; the title continues to generate revenue through updates, expansions, and the online component for years to come." Rosier admitted that Newzoo does not have concrete details about the future of GTA Online, the persistent multiplayer service that has been a revenue engine for Rockstar. "We know a transition is coming at some point, but Take‑Two has been tight‑lipped about the timing and the exact nature of the handover between the current GTA Online and the new ecosystem that will accompany GTA VI," he said.
"Our 2027 forecast does factor in the PC launch of GTA VI, which will be another major driver, but beyond that we’re largely extrapolating from past patterns." Discussing the pricing strategy for GTA VI, Rosier observed that the title’s price elasticity is unusually low. Because there is only one flagship GTA VI at launch, consumers are less sensitive to price changes.
"When a premium title like this is priced higher, it often lifts the overall market because it sets a new benchmark," he noted. "We’ve seen indie games move from $20 to $30 as the top‑end pricing rises, nudging the entire price spectrum upward." Beyond consoles, Newzoo’s report reaffirms that mobile remains the dominant revenue generator in the global games market, accounting for 57% of total earnings in 2026—approximately $121.1 billion, a 6.8% year‑over‑year increase.
This growth is driven by higher player spend and the continued expansion of direct‑to‑consumer storefronts on smartphones and tablets. The report also highlighted the remarkable pre‑order performance of GTA VI. In the first week after pre‑orders opened, the title amassed $260 million in revenue, underscoring the intense anticipation and willingness of gamers to invest early in high‑profile releases. In summary, Rosier’s insights paint a picture of a console market that is heavily dependent on a single, high‑impact release to achieve positive growth in 2026.
While the Nintendo Switch 2 provides a solid supplemental boost, it is GTA VI that stands as the linchpin for the sector’s financial health. The broader industry landscape, however, continues to be dominated by mobile gaming, which retains its position as the largest revenue source worldwide. The interplay between these platforms, the strategic timing of releases, and pricing dynamics will shape the trajectory of the games market well into the next few years.