If Rockstar Games does not release Grand Theft Auto VI in 2026, the worldwide console market would essentially break even with the figures recorded for 2025, according to the latest commentary from Newzoo. Emmanuel “Manu” Rosier, Newzoo’s director of market intelligence, explained to GamesIndustry.biz during the Gamescom 2026 conference that the upcoming GTA VI title is the single most powerful catalyst keeping the console segment on an upward trajectory this year. Rosier also highlighted the anticipated arrival of the Nintendo Switch 2 as another important factor that is currently bolstering console performance. "There are two main drivers that are shaping both the present and the near‑future health of the console ecosystem: the launch of the Switch 2 and, of course, the release of Grand Theft Auto VI later this year.
Both of these events are expected to push the market higher," Rosier told the reporters. He added a hypothetical scenario to illustrate the magnitude of GTA VI’s impact: "If, in 2026, Grand Theft Auto VI were not on the schedule, we would actually see the console platform shrink year over year. The game is essentially the engine that will deliver positive growth for consoles in 2026." Newzoo’s most recent Global Games Market Report backs up these statements with hard numbers.
The firm forecasts a 5.1 percent increase in console revenue for 2026, taking total sales to roughly $46.9 billion. Within that growth, GTA VI is projected to raise full‑game spending on consoles by an impressive 17.5 percent, a boost that Newzoo describes as the "strongest growth of any business model" in the current gaming landscape. Rosier cautioned, however, that the massive pull of GTA VI will not be without side effects. He suggested that the title’s launch will likely be "cannibalistic" to a number of other releases, a phenomenon that explains why many developers and publishers are deliberately shifting their launch windows to avoid direct competition with Rockstar’s flagship.
"Studios are moving their dates to sidestep the GTA VI release window because they know the market will be heavily dominated by that one title," he noted. When asked whether the 2026 spike in revenue could be a short‑lived "GTA bump" that would normalize or even dip in 2027, Rosier argued that the franchise’s enduring strength makes such a correction unlikely. "Grand Theft Auto is a catalogue title with a massive, loyal fanbase. The story doesn’t end in 2026; the momentum carries forward," he said.
He also admitted that the future of GTA Online remains uncertain. "We have no concrete information about how GTA Online will evolve in the coming months and years. Take‑Two has been tight‑lipped about any transition plans, so we can only infer from past patterns," Rosier explained. He added that Newzoo’s 2027 outlook already assumes a PC launch of GTA VI, which will serve as another significant revenue driver, even though the firm lacks detailed data on the timing or scale of that release.
Rosier also addressed the pricing strategy for GTA VI, noting that the game’s price elasticity appears to be very low. "When a single title like GTA VI commands a premium price, it sets a benchmark that other publishers often follow," he said.
"Because there is only one GTA VI, the market can absorb a higher price without a substantial drop in demand. This effect can lift overall price levels across the industry, even nudging indie titles toward higher price points – for example, moving from $20 to $30." Beyond consoles, Newzoo’s report reaffirmed that mobile gaming continues to dominate the global revenue pie. Mobile platforms are projected to generate $121.1 billion in 2026, representing 57 percent of total gaming revenue worldwide and a 6.8 percent year‑over‑year increase.
The growth is being driven by higher average spend per player and the expanding influence of direct‑to‑consumer storefronts on smartphones and tablets. The report also referenced the early commercial performance of GTA VI pre‑orders, which amassed roughly $260 million in revenue during the first week after they became available. This figure underscores the strong consumer appetite for the title and reinforces Rosier’s assessment that GTA VI will be a pivotal revenue engine for the console market throughout 2026 and beyond. In summary, Newzoo’s analysis paints a picture of a console sector that would otherwise see flat or declining sales without the catalytic effect of Grand Theft Auto VI.
Combined with the anticipated launch of the Switch 2, the franchise is set to deliver a double‑digit uplift in console revenues, while also influencing pricing trends and release strategies across the broader industry. Meanwhile, mobile gaming remains the heavyweight in terms of total revenue, continuing its upward trajectory and further diversifying the overall gaming ecosystem.