Shams Jorjani, the chief executive of Arrowhead Game Studios – the studio behind Helldivers 2 – recently told GamesIndustry.biz at Gamescom that the video‑game sector is undergoing a profound transition. He argued that the assumptions and playbooks that guided developers and publishers throughout the 2010s have lost their relevance in today’s market. "Sometimes the narrative is bleak, but overall the industry remains healthy," Jorjani said. "What has fundamentally shifted are the foundations on which we built our expectations.
The strategies that worked from 2010 to 2020 simply don’t apply any longer. The bottom line of every business case has been stripped away.
No one can reliably predict a title’s sales any more – whatever forecast you once had, just subtract a zero. That’s the new reality." Jorjani identified several forces driving this upheaval. One of the most visible is the continued rise of development talent in the Asia‑Pacific region.
He noted that this year’s Gamescom Opening Night Live served as a showcase for the capabilities of studios from China and South Korea, underscoring a broader trend that has been gathering momentum for roughly a decade. "Asian games and companies have been making inroads into the West for ten years, and now we’re seeing a steady stream of titles that genuinely compete on a global stage," he observed. China, in particular, appears to have reached a tipping point in terms of quality.
Jorjani explained that while the Chinese market remains heavily mobile‑centric – a factor that shapes design sensibilities – the overall ambition and polish of its console and PC offerings are accelerating. "AI is amplifying that speed," he added, noting that artificial‑intelligence tools enable developers to iterate faster and bring more products to market.
The conversation then turned to AI itself, which Jorjani described as a technology that injects a high degree of uncertainty into long‑term planning. Unlike previous hype cycles such as virtual reality, which ultimately settled into a niche, AI is reshaping core production pipelines. He highlighted a cultural divide in how the technology is embraced: Western studios tend to debate ethical considerations, data‑training rights, and artistic integrity, whereas many Eastern developers adopt AI with minimal moral reservation, focusing instead on functional output.
"In the West, we’re wrestling with existential questions about what it means to be an artist when a machine can generate code or assets," Jorjani said. "In the East, the priority is simply getting the job done, and the uptake of AI is therefore much faster." Beyond technology, Jorjani pointed to the sheer length of AAA development cycles as another obstacle to forecasting.
Large‑scale projects often span five to six years, involve multiple teams across continents, and demand massive budgets. This reality pushes publishers toward safer bets—sequels, remakes, and established franchises—because brand recognition mitigates risk. "When you have a flood of new releases, players experience analysis paralysis," he explained. "A familiar name like Worms instantly tells you what to expect, even if you’re not sure how innovative it will be.
That certainty is valuable when you’re committing hundreds of millions of dollars." Data supports this cautious approach. Steam’s 2025 replay report indicated that roughly 44 % of player hours were spent on titles between one and seven years old, meaning a substantial portion of the market still gravitates toward older, known properties. While there is vocal demand for fresh IP, actual purchasing behavior leans heavily toward remasters and sequels.
Arrowhead’s own success with Helldivers was described as a rare breakthrough that combined luck with a distinctive “secret sauce” that made the game both recognizable and unique. Jorjani contrasted the AAA model with the indie ecosystem, arguing that smaller studios enjoy a strategic edge thanks to rapid validation cycles. He cited Riot Games and Supercell as examples of companies that juggle multiple projects, allowing a hit to surface while the others fade into the background.
Indie developers, he said, can test concepts early by sharing screenshots, GIFs, or short videos and gauging community reaction. "Early validation is the name of the game," he asserted. "If you get positive feedback from a handful of players early on, you can iterate quickly, reducing risk dramatically." Arrowhead intends to embed this philosophy into its next venture. The studio plans to adopt a mobile‑style approach of presenting concepts to consumers through ads or short demos, then measuring which resonate most.
Jorjani outlined a concrete plan: deliver a prototype to a curated group of about 100 Helldivers enthusiasts, collect data on their favorite IPs and gameplay preferences, and use those insights to steer development. By targeting a niche audience—players who love sci‑fi, alien combat, and the Helldivers brand—the team hopes to refine the product early rather than waiting for a massive marketing push years later.
In summary, Jorjani believes the industry’s old playbooks are obsolete. Long development timelines, the surge of high‑quality Asian titles, and the disruptive influence of AI have collectively reshaped the landscape. While large publishers cling to established brands to hedge against uncertainty, indie studios that can iterate fast and validate ideas with real users hold a distinct advantage. Arrowhead’s upcoming project will test this hypothesis by putting a playable experience in the hands of players as soon as possible, gathering feedback, and adapting on the fly—an approach that could signal a broader shift toward agility in an era where the only constant is change.