Shams Jorjani, the chief executive of Arrowhead Game Studios—the studio behind Helldivers 2—recently told GamesIndustry.biz at Gamescom that the video‑game sector is undergoing a profound transformation. He described the current moment as a "transitional phase," emphasizing that the formulas that guided developers and publishers throughout the 2010s have lost their effectiveness.
In his view, the assumptions that once underpinned business plans have been upended, and the old playbooks that governed the industry from 2010 to 2020 simply no longer apply. "Sometimes there's been doom and gloom, but overall the games industry is doing well," Jorjani said. "It's just that the things that we based our assumptions on have changed fundamentally. The playbooks used from 2010 to 2020 no longer work.
The bottom has fallen out of every business case that you had. No one knew how well a game would sell, but they assumed it would sell at least this much.
Whatever that number was, take a zero away. And that's the reality." His remarks capture a sense of uncertainty that pervades the market: revenue forecasts that once seemed reliable now appear overly optimistic, and investors are forced to reconsider the metrics they use to evaluate projects. Several forces are driving this shift.
One of the most visible is the continued ascent of developers from the Asia‑Pacific region. This year's Gamescom Opening Night Live highlighted the capabilities of studios in China and South Korea, showcasing high‑production titles that rival those from traditional Western powerhouses.
"There's always been a general rise of Asian games and companies into the West," Jorjani noted. "That's been ongoing for the last 10 years, but now it's reached a point where it's game after game after game that's really making it." The quality of Chinese games, in particular, has reached a tipping point, moving beyond the mobile‑first mindset that once defined the market and embracing more ambitious, console‑style experiences. Jorjani explained that while the Chinese audience remains heavily mobile‑oriented, this focus shapes the design sensibilities of local developers.
"It is definitely picking up for sure," he said. "I think that there's still a way to go, but there are very different sensibilities to what makes the games tick as well. The Chinese audience is still primarily mobile-driven. That flavours the sensibilities, but it's going faster.
I think AI is accelerating this because more and more games are coming out faster and faster everywhere." In other words, the convergence of a burgeoning talent pool and rapid production pipelines—often powered by artificial intelligence—means that high‑quality titles can emerge from the region at an unprecedented pace. Artificial intelligence itself is another disruptive factor that adds a layer of unpredictability to the industry's future. Jorjani stressed that AI is not just another hype cycle like virtual reality; it represents a structural change in how games are created, tested, and marketed. "For AI, I think it is more transformative in a completely different way," he said.
He also highlighted a cultural divide in AI adoption: Western studios tend to wrestle with ethical concerns, data‑usage rights, and artistic integrity, whereas many Eastern developers appear more pragmatic, focusing on efficiency and output. "In the West, we're asking if it is ethical and whether these companies are allowed to train on this data, and whether we should oppose it on ideological or artistic grounds. Whereas in the East, they absolutely do not care whatsoever," Jorjani observed. This divergence, he argued, creates an "existential crisis" for Western developers who view games as an artistic medium.
"I am an artist, and I'm also connecting with people on an artistic level, but when you make it into software, it's just functional," he explained. The West may adopt AI more slowly, but the momentum is inevitable, and the technology will eventually reshape development pipelines across the globe.
Beyond technology, the sheer length of development cycles for AAA titles compounds the risk. Large‑scale projects often span five to six years and involve multiple studios across different time zones.
This reality pushes publishers toward established franchises and away from funding brand‑new intellectual property. Jorjani summarized the dilemma: "Development cycles are still long.
If you know that and the market is changing, you need to be very certain that the bet you're taking works. The only thing that really, really mitigates risk on that level is brand and recognisability. People know what they're getting, so you can offset that risk." He illustrated this point with the phenomenon of "analysis paralysis" that afflicts modern gamers.
With an ever‑growing flood of releases, players often gravitate toward familiar names. "You might recognise Worms, for example; it's been around forever.
You know these 10 other games announced two days ago are probably super cool; you might individually click through them to form an opinion. With Worms, you know what you're getting," Jorjani said. Even though brand recognition does not guarantee innovation, it provides a safety net for both developers and consumers.
Statistics from Steam Replay 2025 support this trend, showing that 44 % of playtime was spent on titles between one and seven years old, indicating a strong preference for established games. In contrast, indie developers enjoy a strategic advantage because they can iterate quickly and validate concepts early.
Jorjani pointed to companies like Riot Games and Supercell, which often juggle multiple projects simultaneously; a single breakout hit can eclipse the rest of their pipeline. "The secret sauce to any successful game is early validation," he asserted.
Indie studios can share a short GIF or prototype, gauge community reaction, and pivot before committing massive resources. He cited Tiny Glade as an example of an indie title that gained momentum through viral social‑media clips. Arrowhead itself is adopting this agile approach for its next project.
The studio plans to involve a select group of dedicated Helldivers players early in development, gathering feedback on preferred themes, genres, and gameplay loops. By segmenting the audience—identifying those who love aliens, for instance—the team can fine‑tune the experience for a niche but passionate demographic. This method mirrors mobile‑gaming practices where concepts are tested through ad performance before full production begins.
Jorjani concluded with a call to abandon the old, secretive development model in favor of openness and rapid iteration. "We're going to be putting it in the hands of players right away as soon as possible," he said.
"Our philosophy has always been that we want to make games for a certain type of connoisseur. We don't want just any action player fan. We want a specific one." By embracing early user feedback, leveraging AI tools, and recognizing the shifting global landscape—particularly the rise of Asian studios—Arrowhead aims to stay relevant in an industry where the only constant is change.
In summary, the gaming world is moving away from the predictable, long‑term, brand‑centric model of the past. Developers must now contend with shorter development windows, AI‑driven production, and a competitive market flooded with both legacy franchises and innovative newcomers. For indie studios, the ability to test ideas quickly and connect directly with a targeted audience offers a viable path to success, while larger publishers will need to rethink risk management, perhaps by blending proven IP with fresh, data‑informed concepts.
The future, according to Jorjani, will be defined by flexibility, early validation, and a willingness to let go of outdated playbooks.