In a recent interview at Gamescom 2026, Emmanuel “Manu” Rosier, Newzoo’s director of market intelligence, warned that the console market would essentially stagnate in 2026 if the highly anticipated Grand Theft Auto VI were not slated for release. According to Rosier, Rockstar’s flagship title is the sole catalyst that will keep console revenues from slipping year‑over‑year, and the upcoming Nintendo Switch 2 also adds a modest boost to the sector’s performance. Rosier explained that two primary forces are shaping the console landscape this year: the arrival of the Switch 2 and, more importantly, the launch of Grand Theft Auto VI.
“If GTA VI were not on the 2026 calendar, we would likely see a decline in console sales compared with 2025,” he told GamesIndustry.biz. “The game is acting as a growth engine, pulling the whole platform upward.” Newzoo’s latest Global Games Market Report backs up this sentiment, forecasting a 5.1% increase in console revenue for 2026, bringing the total to roughly $46.9 billion.
Within that figure, GTA VI is projected to contribute a 17.5% surge in full‑game spending on consoles, making it the strongest growth driver among all business models tracked by the firm. The analyst also noted that the blockbuster’s release will likely be “cannibalistic” to other titles, a phenomenon that has already prompted several developers to shift their launch windows to avoid direct competition with GTA VI.
This strategic rescheduling underscores the game’s market‑shaping power and highlights how a single high‑profile release can ripple through the entire ecosystem. When asked whether the 2026 spike in sales would be a one‑off bump that might normalize in 2027, Rosier emphasized the enduring strength of the Grand Theft Auto brand.
“The catalogue value of GTA is immense,” he said. “The story doesn’t end with the launch; the title continues to generate revenue through updates, online modes, and post‑launch content.” He admitted, however, that Newzoo lacks concrete information about the future of GTA Online, noting that Take‑Two has been tight‑lipped about its roadmap. “We know a transition is coming, but the timing and specifics remain unclear,” Rosier added. Looking ahead to 2027, Newzoo’s forecasts assume that GTA VI will roll out on PC, providing another significant revenue boost.
Yet, the firm cautions that the exact magnitude of that boost is uncertain, as it must rely on historical patterns from previous GTA releases rather than concrete data from the publisher. Rosier also touched on pricing dynamics, observing that the price elasticity for a title like GTA VI is unusually low.
Because there is only one official version of the game, consumers are less sensitive to price changes. “When a premium title raises its price, it often lifts the whole market,” he explained. “We’ve seen indie games move from $20 to $30, and that upward pressure is partly driven by flagship releases setting new price expectations.” Beyond consoles, Newzoo’s report reaffirms that mobile gaming remains the dominant revenue generator worldwide, accounting for 57% of total global gaming income in 2026—about $121.1 billion, a 6.8% year‑over‑year increase.
This growth is attributed to higher player spending and the expanding reach of direct‑to‑consumer storefronts on smartphones and tablets. The report also highlighted an impressive pre‑order performance for GTA VI.
In the first week after pre‑orders opened, the game generated roughly $260 million in revenue, underscoring the massive anticipation and purchasing power of the franchise’s fan base. In summary, Newzoo’s analysis paints a picture of a console market heavily dependent on a single blockbuster to achieve modest growth in 2026. While the Switch 2 provides a supplementary lift, it is GTA VI that will be the decisive factor in preventing a flat or declining revenue year. The data suggests that the game’s influence will extend beyond its initial launch, shaping pricing trends, release strategies of other developers, and potentially continuing to drive revenue through online services and future platform releases.
The broader gaming landscape, however, remains firmly anchored by mobile, which continues to dominate global earnings and set the pace for overall industry expansion.