If Grand Theft Auto VI does not arrive in 2026, the console market would essentially break even with its 2025 performance, according to Newzoo’s market‑intelligence lead Emmanuel “Manu” Rosier. Speaking to GamesIndustry.biz at Gamescom 2026, Rosier emphasized that Rockstar’s flagship open‑world crime saga is the sole catalyst capable of delivering any meaningful growth to console platforms this year.
He also highlighted the upcoming Nintendo Switch 2 as an additional, albeit secondary, driver of the sector’s current health. "Two forces are shaping the present and future trajectory of consoles: the Switch 2 and, of course, the launch of Grand Theft Auto VI later this year, which will push the market upward," Rosier explained. "If GTA VI were not on the schedule for 2026, the console segment would actually contract year‑over‑year. The title is fundamentally responsible for the positive growth we anticipate in 2026." Newzoo’s latest Global Games Market Report backs up those statements, forecasting a 5.1% increase in console revenue for 2026, taking total earnings to $46.9 billion.
Within that uplift, GTA VI is projected to boost full‑game spending on consoles by a striking 17.5%, a figure Newzoo labels as the strongest expansion among all business models in the industry. Rosier also warned that the blockbuster’s release will be "cannibalistic" to other titles, a factor that explains why many developers have shifted their launch windows to avoid direct competition with GTA VI.
When asked whether the market would experience a massive "GTA bump" in 2026 followed by a correction in 2027, Rosier noted that the enduring strength of the Grand Theft Auto brand means the impact will likely persist beyond the initial launch year. "The catalogue value of Grand Theft Auto is huge; the story doesn’t end in 2026," he said.
Regarding GTA Online, Rosier admitted that Newzoo lacks concrete information about the platform’s future direction. "We know a transition is coming, but Take‑Two has been tight‑lipped, so we can’t pinpoint when the current GTA ecosystem will give way to the new title. Nevertheless, we expect the PC release of GTA VI in 2027 to be a major revenue driver, even though we have no firm data beyond historical patterns of previous releases." When the conversation turned to pricing, Rosier observed that the market’s price elasticity for a title like GTA VI is extremely low because there is only one such product.
"The demand is inelastic; everyone has been waiting for years," he said. "When premium pricing rises, it tends to lift the entire market.
Indie games that once sold for $20 are now often priced at $30, nudging overall price levels upward." The report also reaffirmed mobile gaming’s dominance, projecting that the platform will capture 57% of global game revenue in 2026—approximately $121.1 billion, a 6.8% year‑over‑year increase. This growth is driven by higher player spend and the maturation of direct‑to‑consumer storefronts. In contrast, console revenue, while growing, remains a smaller slice of the overall pie, heavily dependent on marquee releases like GTA VI and hardware refreshes such as the Switch 2.
Newzoo previously disclosed that GTA VI pre‑orders generated $260 million in their first week of availability, underscoring the title’s massive commercial pull. This early surge, combined with the anticipated post‑launch sales surge, forms the backbone of the 17.5% uplift in full‑game spending that Newzoo attributes to the game.
In summary, without the catalytic effect of Grand Theft Auto VI, the console sector would likely see flat or even declining revenues in 2026. The combination of a high‑profile software launch and a new hardware iteration from Nintendo creates the only realistic path to the modest 5.1% growth forecast by Newzoo. As the industry watches the rollout, analysts will continue to monitor how the GTA brand’s pricing power and consumer anticipation translate into sustained financial performance across both console and PC platforms in the years ahead.