If Grand Theft Auto VI does not hit the shelves in 2026, the console segment would essentially see no growth compared with the previous year, according to Newzoo’s market intelligence chief Emmanuel “Manu” Rosier. Speaking to GamesIndustry.biz at Gamescom 2026, Rosier emphasized that Rockstar’s upcoming blockbuster is the sole catalyst capable of delivering any positive momentum to the console market in the coming twelve months. He also highlighted the forthcoming Nintendo Switch 2 as another important piece of the puzzle, but made clear that the two forces together are what keep the sector from slipping into decline.
"There are two drivers that are explaining the current and future performance of consoles: Switch 2 and, obviously, the release of Grand Theft Auto VI this year, which is going to drive the market up," Rosier told the outlet. "If in 2026, let’s say Grand Theft Auto VI wasn’t coming out, then you would have a platform going down year‑on‑year. GTA is really helping consoles achieve positive growth in 2026." Newzoo’s freshly published Global Games Market Report backs up those statements with hard numbers.
The analysis forecasts that console revenue will climb 5.1 percent in 2026, reaching a total of $46.9 billion. Within that growth, GTA VI is projected to lift full‑game spending on consoles by 17.5 percent, a rate that Newzoo describes as the strongest expansion among all business models in the industry. Rosier also warned that the launch of GTA VI will likely be "cannibalistic" to other titles, a phenomenon that explains why many developers are shifting their release windows to avoid direct competition with Rockstar’s flagship.
When asked whether the market would experience a massive "GTA bump" in 2026 followed by a correction in 2027, Rosier replied that the enduring strength of the Grand Theft Auto franchise means the impact will not simply disappear after the first year. "The story doesn’t end at the end of 2026," he said, underscoring the long‑term revenue potential of both the single‑player experience and the accompanying online component.
Regarding GTA Online, Rosier admitted that Newzoo lacks concrete details about the future roadmap. "We have no certainty about what GTA Online will become in the coming months and year," he explained.
"We know there will be a transition at some point, but Take‑Two has not been communicating about it, so we don’t know when it will be the fit between current GTA and new GTA. We know it’s also generating a lot of revenue. Our forecast for 2027 includes the launch of Grand Theft Auto VI on PC, so that’s a big driver obviously.
But we have no information of any kind. We’re just looking at the past and how things unfolded for the previous Grand Theft Auto title." When the conversation turned to pricing, Rosier observed that the market’s price elasticity is unusually low for a title like GTA VI because there is essentially only one version of the game. "Sometimes one publisher leads the way and then others follow; the price elasticity is very low because there is only one GTA VI," he noted.
He added that the long‑awaited release has allowed Rockstar to set a premium price without significantly dampening demand. "Everyone’s been waiting so long," Rosier said. "It doesn’t mean that everyone can do that.
But usually when the top pricing increases, it lifts the market; the indie game became $30 rather than $20. The prices are being lifted a little bit." While consoles receive a boost from GTA VI and the upcoming Switch 2, Newzoo’s broader market outlook paints a different picture for the overall gaming ecosystem. Mobile gaming remains the dominant revenue generator, projected to account for 57 percent of global gaming income in 2026 – roughly $121.1 billion – marking a 6.8 percent year‑on‑year increase.
This growth is driven by higher player spend, expanding direct‑to‑consumer storefronts, and continued penetration of smartphones in emerging markets. In addition to the macro trends, Newzoo disclosed that GTA VI pre‑orders alone generated $260 million in the first week after they opened, underscoring the franchise’s massive pull.
The combination of a high‑priced premium launch, strong brand loyalty, and a robust online component positions GTA VI as a cornerstone of the console ecosystem for the foreseeable future. Overall, the data suggests that without the catalytic effect of Grand Theft Auto VI, the console market would likely have stagnated or even contracted in 2026. The synergy between Rockstar’s flagship release and Nintendo’s next‑gen Switch console provides the dual thrust needed to sustain modest growth, while mobile continues to dominate the revenue landscape. As the industry watches the rollout of GTA VI on consoles and later on PC, analysts will be keen to see whether the anticipated uplift translates into longer‑term stability or simply a short‑term spike before the market settles into a new equilibrium.