If Rockstar Games does not release Grand Theft Auto VI in 2026, the console market would essentially break even with the previous year, according to Newzoo’s latest outlook. Emmanuel “Manu” Rosier, Newzoo’s director of market intelligence, explained this outlook during an interview with GamesIndustry.biz at Gamescom 2026. He emphasized that the upcoming blockbuster from Rockstar is the single most important catalyst for any growth in the console segment this year. Rosier also highlighted the role of Nintendo’s upcoming Switch 2 console, which is currently providing an additional lift to the platform’s performance.
"Two main forces are shaping the console landscape right now: the launch of Switch 2 and, of course, the release of Grand Theft Auto VI later this year. Those two drivers together are what will push the market upward," Rosier told the reporters.
"If GTA VI were not on the schedule for 2026, we would actually see a year‑over‑year decline in console revenue. The title is practically guaranteeing a positive growth trajectory for the sector." Newzoo’s freshly published Global Games Market Report quantifies that growth. The firm expects console revenue to increase by 5.1% in 2026, reaching a total of $46.9 billion.
Within that figure, Grand Theft Auto VI alone is projected to lift full‑game spending on consoles by 17.5%, making it the strongest growth engine among all business models tracked by Newzoo. Rosier also warned that the massive appeal of GTA VI could be "cannibalistic" to other releases. He noted that many developers are strategically shifting their launch windows to avoid direct competition with Rockstar’s title, hoping to preserve sales momentum for their own games. When asked whether the market would experience a sharp "GTA bump" in 2026 followed by a correction in 2027, Rosier replied that the franchise’s longevity as a catalogue property suggests a more sustained impact.
"The strength of Grand Theft Auto as a long‑term brand means the story doesn’t end in 2026," he said. He added that the future of GTA Online remains uncertain. "We don’t have concrete information on how GTA Online will evolve over the next months and years.
Take‑Two has been tight‑lipped about any transition plans, so we can only infer from past patterns. Our 2027 forecast already assumes the PC launch of GTA VI, which will be another major revenue driver, but beyond that we’re essentially looking at historical trends." Regarding pricing, Rosier observed that the franchise’s pricing power is unusually strong. "When a single title like GTA VI commands a premium, the entire market feels the effect.
Price elasticity is very low because there’s only one GTA VI at any given time. The hype and waiting period have been enormous, and that allows publishers to set higher price points without major push‑back.
In fact, we’ve seen indie titles move from $20 to $30 as the overall price floor rises." Beyond consoles, Newzoo’s report reaffirms that mobile gaming continues to dominate global revenue. Mobile is expected to generate $121.1 billion in 2026, accounting for 57% of total industry earnings and representing a 6.8% year‑over‑year increase.
The growth is driven by higher average spend per player and the expanding reach of direct‑to‑consumer storefronts on smartphones and tablets. The report also referenced the early commercial performance of GTA VI pre‑orders. In the first week after pre‑order availability, the title generated roughly $260 million in revenue, underscoring the massive demand that the game has already captured before its official launch.
Overall, Newzoo’s analysis paints a picture of a console market that is heavily dependent on a handful of marquee events. The Switch 2’s arrival provides a modest boost, but it is the launch of Grand Theft Auto VI that will determine whether the sector can achieve meaningful growth in 2026. If the game underperforms or is delayed, the console segment could revert to flat or even declining revenues, while mobile gaming continues its steady expansion across the global landscape.