If Rockstar Games does not release Grand Theft Auto 6 in 2026, the console market would essentially break even with its 2025 performance, according to Newzoo’s market‑intelligence chief Emmanuel “Manu” Rosier. Speaking to GamesIndustry.biz at Gamescom 2026, Rosier emphasized that the much‑anticipated crime‑action title is the single catalyst capable of delivering any positive growth for consoles this year. He also highlighted the forthcoming Nintendo Switch 2 as another important contributor to the sector’s health.
"Two main forces are shaping the current and future trajectory of console sales: the launch of Switch 2 and, of course, Grand Theft Auto 6," Rosier explained. "If GTA 6 were not arriving in 2026, the console platform would actually shrink year over year.
The game is the key driver that will push the market upward." Newzoo’s latest Global Games Market Report reinforces this outlook, forecasting a 5.1% increase in console revenue for 2026, reaching roughly $46.9 billion. Within that growth, Grand Theft Auto 6 is expected to lift full‑game spending by an impressive 17.5%, a rate Newzoo describes as the strongest expansion among all business models in the industry. Rosier warned that the launch of GTA 6 could be "cannibalistic" to other titles, a dynamic that is already prompting many developers to shift their release windows to avoid direct competition with the blockbuster. When asked whether the 2026 surge would be a one‑off spike that might normalize in 2027, Rosier noted that the franchise’s enduring catalogue strength means the impact will likely extend beyond the initial launch window.
"The story doesn’t end in 2026," he said, pointing to the uncertainty surrounding the future of GTA Online and the timing of its transition to a new ecosystem. "We have no certainty about what GTA Online will become in the coming months and year," Rosier admitted. "We know there will be a transition at some point, but Take‑Two has not been communicating about it, so we don’t know when the hand‑off between the current GTA and the new GTA will occur. We do know it is a massive revenue generator.
Our 2027 forecast already includes the PC release of GTA 6, which will be another major driver, but we lack concrete information beyond historical patterns of previous GTA launches." Discussing pricing, Rosier observed that the market’s price elasticity for a flagship title like GTA 6 is extremely low because there is essentially only one version of the game. "When a top‑tier title raises its price, it tends to lift the entire market," he said, noting that even indie developers have begun to price their games at $30 instead of the traditional $20, reflecting a broader upward trend in game pricing. Beyond consoles, Newzoo’s report reaffirms mobile gaming’s dominance, projecting it to capture 57% of global gaming revenue in 2026—about $121.1 billion, a 6.8% year‑on‑year increase. This growth is driven by higher player spend and the continued expansion of direct‑to‑consumer storefronts on smartphones and tablets.
The report also revealed that GTA 6 pre‑orders generated roughly $260 million in their first week of availability, underscoring the franchise’s massive pull and the immediate financial impact of consumer anticipation. In summary, Newzoo’s analysis paints a picture of a console ecosystem that would otherwise plateau without the catalytic effect of Grand Theft Auto 6. The combination of a new Nintendo hardware offering and the blockbuster launch appears to be the only realistic path to achieving the modest 5% growth forecast for 2026. Meanwhile, mobile gaming continues to expand its lead, capturing more than half of worldwide gaming revenue and setting the broader market context in which console performance will be measured.