If Grand Theft Auto VI does not arrive in 2026, the console market would essentially break even with its 2025 performance, according to Newzoo’s market‑intelligence director Emmanuel “Manu” Rosier. Speaking to GamesIndustry.biz at Gamescom 2026, Rosier emphasized that Rockstar’s flagship open‑world crime saga is the single most powerful catalyst keeping the console segment on an upward trajectory this year.
He also highlighted the upcoming Nintendo Switch 2 as another positive influence, but made clear that without GTA VI the sector would likely experience a year‑on‑year decline. "There are two main drivers behind the current and future health of consoles: the Switch 2 and, of course, the launch of Grand Theft Auto VI this year, which will push the market higher," Rosier explained. "If GTA VI weren’t launching in 2026, the platform would actually contract compared with 2025. GTA is the engine that’s delivering positive growth for consoles in 2026." Newzoo’s freshly published Global Games Market Report backs up those statements, forecasting a 5.1% increase in console revenue for 2026, bringing the total to $46.9 billion.
Within that growth, GTA VI is projected to boost full‑game spending on consoles by 17.5%, a figure Newzoo describes as the strongest expansion among all business models in the industry. Rosier also warned that the arrival of GTA VI could be "cannibalistic" to other titles, a dynamic that is already prompting many developers to shift their release windows to avoid direct competition with Rockstar’s blockbuster. When asked whether the market would see a pronounced "GTA bump" in 2026 followed by a correction in 2027, Rosier noted the enduring power of the franchise.
"The strength of Grand Theft Auto as a catalogue title is huge; the story doesn’t end in 2026," he said. He added that the future of GTA Online remains uncertain. "We have no certainty about what GTA Online will become in the coming months and year. We know there will be a transition at some point, but Take‑Two has not been communicating about it, so we don’t know when the hand‑off between the current GTA ecosystem and the new GTA will happen.
We do know it generates a lot of revenue. Our 2027 forecast includes the PC launch of Grand Theft Auto VI, which will be a major driver, but we lack concrete information beyond past patterns." Discussing the pricing strategy for GTA VI, Rosier observed that when a leading publisher raises its flagship price, the rest of the market often follows. "Price elasticity is very low because there is only one GTA VI," he said. "Everyone’s been waiting so long.
It doesn’t mean everyone can afford it, but historically, when top‑tier pricing climbs, it lifts the entire market. Indie titles have moved from $20 to $30, and overall price points are creeping upward." Beyond consoles, Newzoo’s report reaffirms mobile gaming’s dominance. Mobile is expected to capture 57% of global gaming revenue in 2026, amounting to $121.1 billion—a 6.8% year‑on‑year increase driven by higher player spend and the expansion of direct‑to‑consumer storefronts. The report also highlighted the early commercial success of GTA VI pre‑orders, which generated $260 million in the first week after becoming available.
This strong start underscores the franchise’s ability to command premium pricing and deliver substantial upfront revenue. In summary, Newzoo’s analysis paints a picture of a console market that would be flat or possibly declining without the catalytic effect of GTA VI. The combination of the anticipated Switch 2 launch and Rockstar’s new title creates a rare growth window for a segment that has faced steady pressure from mobile and PC platforms.
While the exact trajectory of GTA Online and the long‑term pricing landscape remain uncertain, the immediate outlook suggests that GTA VI will not only boost console sales but also influence pricing trends across the broader industry, potentially raising the average spend on games of all sizes.