If Rockstar Games does not release Grand Theft Auto VI in 2026, the console market would essentially break even with the figures recorded for 2025, according to Newzoo’s latest outlook. Emmanuel “Manu” Rosier, Newzoo’s director of market intelligence, explained this during an interview with GamesIndustry.biz at Gamescom 2026, emphasizing that the upcoming blockbuster title is the single catalyst capable of delivering any meaningful growth to the console segment this year. Rosier also highlighted the role of Nintendo’s forthcoming Switch 2 console as an additional, though secondary, driver of the sector’s performance. "Two forces are shaping the present and future health of the console ecosystem: the launch of Switch 2 and, most importantly, the arrival of Grand Theft Auto VI," Rosier told the press.
"If GTA VI were absent from the 2026 calendar, we would actually see a year‑over‑year decline across the board. The game is the engine that will push console revenues into positive territory this year." Newzoo’s freshly published Global Games Market Report estimates that total console revenue will climb 5.1% in 2026, reaching $46.9 billion.
Within that figure, Grand Theft Auto VI is projected to lift full‑game spending on consoles by an impressive 17.5%, making it the strongest growth driver among all business models tracked by the firm. This surge is not merely a short‑term spike; Rosier believes the title’s influence will extend beyond its launch window because of the enduring appeal of the Grand Theft Auto franchise and its online component. He noted that the release will likely be "cannibalistic" to other titles, prompting many developers to shift their launch windows to avoid direct competition with Rockstar’s flagship. When asked whether the market would experience a massive "GTA bump" in 2026 that would then normalize in 2027, Rosier responded that the franchise’s catalog strength means its impact will not simply disappear after the initial surge.
"The story doesn’t end in 2026," he said, pointing to the uncertain future of GTA Online and the lack of official communication from Take‑Two regarding the transition between the current online environment and the new iteration that will accompany GTA VI. Rosier admitted that Newzoo’s forecast for 2027 includes the PC launch of GTA VI, which will act as another significant revenue driver, but the firm has no concrete data on how Take‑Two will manage the handover between the existing online service and the upcoming version.
"We’re looking at historical patterns from previous Grand Theft Auto releases to infer what might happen," he explained. The discussion also touched on pricing. Rosier observed that when a marquee title like GTA VI commands a premium price, the overall market tends to follow suit, raising price points for other games, including indie titles that may move from $20 to $30. He described the price elasticity for GTA VI as "very low" because there is only one such title, and consumer demand is exceptionally high after a long wait.
Beyond consoles, Newzoo’s report reaffirms that mobile remains the dominant platform worldwide, accounting for 57% of total gaming revenue in 2026 – roughly $121.1 billion, a 6.8% year‑over‑year increase. This growth is driven by higher player spending and the continued expansion of direct‑to‑consumer storefronts on smartphones and tablets. The analyst also recalled that pre‑orders for GTA VI generated $260 million in the first week after they opened, underscoring the massive anticipation surrounding the game. While the exact launch date for the Switch 2 has not been disclosed, its expected release is another factor that could buoy console sales, particularly for Nintendo’s ecosystem, which has historically benefited from strong first‑party titles and a loyal fan base.
In summary, Newzoo’s data paints a picture of a console market that would otherwise be flat or even declining without the catalytic effect of Grand Theft Auto VI. The combination of a high‑profile, high‑spending title and the introduction of a next‑generation Nintendo console creates a rare convergence of growth drivers for a sector that has faced steady pressure from mobile and PC gaming.
Stakeholders should therefore monitor the performance of GTA VI closely, as its sales trajectory, pricing strategy, and online ecosystem will likely set the tone for console revenue trends not only in 2026 but also in the subsequent years as the industry adjusts to the new competitive landscape.