If Rockstar Games does not release Grand Theft Auto VI in 2026, the console market would essentially break even with the figures recorded for 2025, according to Newzoo’s latest market outlook. Emmanuel “Manu” Rosier, Newzoo’s director of market intelligence, explained this outlook during an interview with GamesIndustry.biz at Gamescom 2026, emphasizing that the upcoming GTA VI title is the single most powerful catalyst for any growth in the console segment this year. Rosier also highlighted the role of Nintendo’s next‑generation handheld, the Switch 2, as a secondary driver that is currently supporting the platform’s performance. "Two main forces are shaping the console landscape right now: the arrival of Switch 2 and, of course, the release of Grand Theft Auto VI later this year.
Both are set to push the market upward," Rosier said. "If we imagined a 2026 without GTA VI, the console segment would actually contract year‑on‑year. The game is essentially the engine that will keep console revenue in positive territory." Newzoo’s newly published Global Games Market Report quantifies this impact.
The firm forecasts a 5.1% increase in total console revenue for 2026, taking the figure to roughly $46.9 billion. Within that growth, GTA VI is projected to lift full‑game spending on consoles by an impressive 17.5%, a rate that Newzoo describes as the strongest growth among all business models in the sector. Rosier also warned that the massive pull of GTA VI will likely be "cannibalistic" to other titles, meaning that many developers are strategically shifting their launch windows to avoid direct competition with Rockstar’s blockbuster. This phenomenon is not new; historically, major releases from established franchises have created similar ripple effects across the release calendar, prompting studios to stagger their announcements to preserve sales potential.
When asked whether the 2026 surge driven by GTA VI would be a one‑off spike that would normalize in 2027, Rosier pointed to the enduring strength of the Grand Theft Auto brand. "The franchise is a catalogue title with a long tail," he explained. "Its influence doesn’t simply end when the launch window closes.
The story continues through updates, online content, and the broader ecosystem that Rockstar maintains." Regarding the future of GTA Online, Rosier admitted that Newzoo lacks concrete information about Take‑Two’s roadmap. "We know there will be a transition at some point, but Take‑Two has been tight‑lipped about timing and specifics. Our 2027 forecast assumes the PC launch of GTA VI, which will be another significant revenue driver, but beyond that we’re essentially extrapolating from past patterns." On pricing, Rosier observed that the market’s price elasticity for a title like GTA VI is extremely low. "When a single, highly anticipated game commands a premium price, it tends to lift the overall price floor across the industry.
Indie developers, for instance, have started pricing their premium releases closer to $30 instead of $20, reflecting a broader willingness to spend." Beyond consoles, Newzoo’s report reaffirms that mobile gaming remains the dominant revenue generator worldwide. Mobile is expected to capture 57% of total global game revenue in 2026, amounting to $121.1 billion—a 6.8% year‑on‑year increase driven by higher player spend and the expansion of direct‑to‑consumer storefronts. The report also noted that GTA VI pre‑orders generated roughly $260 million in their first week of availability, underscoring the franchise’s massive pull even before the full game hits shelves.
This early revenue stream further illustrates how a single flagship title can influence market dynamics across multiple platforms. In summary, Newzoo’s analysis paints a picture of a console market that is heavily dependent on two key developments in 2026: the launch of Nintendo’s Switch 2 and the release of Rockstar’s Grand Theft Auto VI. Without the latter, the sector would likely see flat or declining revenue, while the former provides a modest but important boost. The broader industry context shows mobile continuing its ascendancy, while console growth hinges on marquee releases and strategic platform updates.
As the year unfolds, the actual performance of GTA VI—both in terms of sales and post‑launch content—will be the primary factor determining whether the console segment can sustain the modest growth Newzoo predicts, or if it will revert to a more stagnant trajectory in subsequent years.