If Grand Theft Auto VI does not hit the shelves in 2026, the console market would essentially break even with the figures recorded in 2025, according to Newzoo’s latest analysis. Emmanuel “Manu” Rosier, Newzoo’s director of market intelligence, made the point during an interview with GamesIndustry.biz at Gamescom 2026, emphasizing that Rockstar’s flagship title is the single most powerful catalyst for any growth in the console segment this year. Rosier also highlighted the upcoming Nintendo Switch 2 as another important contributor, but he stressed that the sheer scale of GTA VI’s release dwarfs all other influences. "There are two main drivers shaping the current and near‑future health of the console ecosystem: the launch of Switch 2 and, unmistakably, Grand Theft Auto VI," Rosier explained.
"If GTA VI were not slated for release in 2026, we would see a year‑on‑year decline across the board. The game is literally pulling the console market out of a flat trajectory and delivering positive growth." Newzoo’s freshly published Global Games Market Report reinforces this narrative, forecasting a 5.1% increase in console revenue for 2026, taking the total to roughly $46.9 billion. Within that growth, GTA VI is projected to lift full‑game spending on consoles by an impressive 17.5%, a boost that Newzoo identifies as the strongest growth rate among all business models in the sector.
Rosier went on to note that the launch of GTA VI will inevitably be "cannibalistic" to other titles, a phenomenon that has already prompted several developers to shift their release windows to avoid direct competition with Rockstar’s blockbuster. When asked whether the market would experience a massive "GTA bump" in 2026 followed by a correction in 2027, Rosier replied that the franchise’s enduring catalogue strength means the impact will likely reverberate beyond the initial launch window.
"The story doesn’t end in 2026," he said. "We don’t yet know how GTA Online will evolve over the next months and year.
Take‑Two has been tight‑lipped about its roadmap, so we can’t pinpoint when the transition between the current online offering and the new version will happen. Nonetheless, we anticipate that the continued revenue stream from GTA Online will remain a significant factor. Our 2027 outlook already incorporates the PC launch of GTA VI, which will be another major driver, but we lack concrete details beyond historical patterns observed with previous GTA releases." Addressing concerns about the pricing of GTA VI, Rosier observed that the title enjoys extremely low price elasticity because it is a unique, one‑off release.
"When a single publisher raises its flagship price, the entire market feels the lift," he said. "We’ve seen indie games move from $20 to $30, and overall price points are inching upward. The demand for GTA VI is so strong that even a higher price tag won’t deter consumers." Beyond consoles, Newzoo’s report reaffirms that mobile gaming continues to dominate global revenue, accounting for 57% of total industry earnings in 2026—approximately $121.1 billion, a 6.8% year‑on‑year increase. This growth is driven by higher player spend, expanded direct‑to‑consumer storefronts, and the ongoing maturation of mobile monetisation strategies.
The report also recalled that GTA VI pre‑orders generated roughly $260 million in their first week of availability, underscoring the franchise’s unparalleled pull. While the console segment relies heavily on the GTA VI launch to avoid stagnation, the broader gaming ecosystem benefits from a diversified mix of platforms and business models, with mobile leading the charge, subscription services gaining traction, and emerging technologies such as cloud gaming beginning to carve out their own niches. In summary, Newzoo’s data paints a clear picture: without the catalytic effect of Grand Theft Auto VI, console revenues would likely flat‑line in 2026.
The combination of the Switch 2 debut and the GTA VI release creates a rare dual‑engine of growth, propelling the console market forward while the rest of the industry continues its upward trajectory, driven primarily by mobile. As the year unfolds, analysts will be watching closely to see how these forecasts hold up, especially as Rockstar’s pricing strategy and post‑launch support for GTA VI evolve.